Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.
One of the hottest pitchers in baseball could key an ‘under’ in interleague play Tuesday night when southpaw Robbie Ray and the Arizona Diamondbacks (40-42, 18-21 away) pay a visit to the white-hot right-hander Yovani Gallardo and the Texas Rangers (41-42, 15-22 home) in the first game of a brief two-game series from Globe Life Park in Arlington, TX at 8:05 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Southwest.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +113.
The Rangers are much improved this season after finishing with the worst record in the American League last year mainly due to a boatload of injuries, but they missed a chance to move up in the American League West standings this past weekend when they were swept three games by the Los Angeles Angels, surrendering 33 runs in the three games! That drops Texas one game under .500 and seven games behind the first place Astros while third in the division.
The Diamondbacks again had a chance to get to the .500 mark on Sunday, but unbelievably they were the losing MLB pick again for the 12th straight time this year when pulling to within one game of .500, this time to the Colorado Rockies 6-4 back home in Phoenix. Still, Arizona has also improved tafter finishing with the worst record in all of baseball last seson, also because of injuries, as it sits third in the National League West six games behind the Dodgers.
The Great Gallardo
Texas certainly seems to have the perfect pitcher to correct it recent pitching woes on the mound tonight though. That is because with relatively little fanfare, Gallardo might be pitching the best baseball in the Major Leagues as of late as he has tossed 26.1 scoreless innings over his last four starts and he now has five scoreless outings in his last six starts! Furthermore, in the one outing where he allowed any runs, he allowed just two with 10 strikeouts in seven innings.
Thus Gallardo has come out of nowhere to now rank sixth in the American League with his 2.56 ERA overall, but his peripheral numbers have been strong all along in his first season in the American League after spending his career with the Milwaukee Brewers before this year. He also tends to work deeply into games, which is critical here as it would give a Texas bullpen that was overworked vs. the Angels some extra rest after an off day on Monday.
Rangers’ Troubles with Lefties
Speaking of switching leagues, Ray did the same thing this year for the Diamondbacks coming over from the Detroit Tigers, and he is enjoying National League life so far except for his 2-4 record, as he owns a spiffy 2.55 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 42.1 innings covering seven starts. Ray had allowed three runs or less in each of his first six starts in an Arizona uniform before getting touched up for four runs on seven hits in six innings by the Dodgers last time out.
He now gets a chance to regain his good form vs. a Rangers’ lineup that is batting just .232 vs. left-handed pitchers overall this season, an average that has actually dropped to .223 vs. southpaws over the last 10 games while averaging just 2.63 runs against them during this time. Ray also has the support of a hot Arizona bullpen that has posted a 2.16 ERA over that same recent 10-gane span.
Good ‘under’ Trends on Both Sides
Finally, because Texas has not hit southpaws well over most of this season, the ‘under’ is 12-5 in the Rangers’ last 17 games vs. left-handed starters. Also, the ‘under’ is 14-5-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 20 interleague road games vs. right-handed starters.
With Arizona facing one of the hottest righties in the game here in Gallardo and with the southpaw Ray proving serviceable for the Diamondbacks, look for those ‘under’ patterns to continue for at least one more game in Arlington on Tuesday.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks, Rangers ‘under’ 8½ (+113)