Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.
Two competent pitchers and a pitcher-friendly stadium could combine to produce an ‘under’ Sunday when Chase Anderson and the Arizona Diamondbacks (35-39, 17-21 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne and the San Diego Padres (37-40, 18-19 home) in the final game of a three-game weekend series from Petco Park in San Diego, CA at 4:10 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Arizona.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -119.
Padres Looking to Sweep
Hopes were high for the Padres this year after new ownership spent a lot of money during the off-season, something the previous regime was reluctant to do. The results have not been there though with San Diego sitting three games under .500 and in third place in the National League West. The good news is that the Padres are still only 5½ games behind the first place Los Angeles Dodgers and they are now looking to complete a three-game sweep of this series.
The Diamondbacks were the worst MLB picks in the Major Leagues last year at 64-98, leading to the firing of former manager Kirk Gibson in favor of Chip Hale. There was reason to expect improvement this year though as the Diamondbacks were beset by injuries in 2014, and they have indeed been a bit better as they were within one game of the .500 mark before their current three-game losing streak.
Arizona now seems to have the right pitcher on the mound as it looks to snap that losing streak.
Anderson was highly touted when he was called up by the Diamondbacks last year and he immediately looked the part and has been even better so far this season, although his terrible outing in Colorado on Tuesday where he allowed eight earned runs on eight hits plus three walks in only 4.2 innings are now skewing his numbers a bit. And Anderson has had good success vs. the San Diego lineup.
Now, Coors Field has been a graveyard for even the best if pitchers so do not read too much into what was probably Anderson’s worst start of his career. Besides, even with that stinker Tuesday he is still 3-2 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and he has remarkably allowed two runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts. Anderson is not a big strikeout guy but he does not walk many either at 2.14 per nine innings and he has only allowed six home runs in 14 starts.
Anderson has already faced the Padres five times since his recall last year and he allowed two runs or less in four of those starts including in both outings this season, over which he has allowed a grand total of three runs in 13 innings.
Despaigne Has Had Success vs. Arizona
Now, Despaigne will not wow you with great raw stuff, but the Cuban defector have proven serviceable since his call-up last year and he had shown that he knows have to pitch to the dimensions of Petco Park. His overall numbers are nothing special at 3-5 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, but he has now allowed two runs or less in five of his last seven starts and he has done so in each of his last three starts in San Diego.
Granted, the Diamondbacks tagged Despaigne for eight runs on 10 hits in five innings the last time he faced them, but that was at more hitter-friendly Chase Field in Phoenix and he had had Arizona’s number prior to that, allowing three earned runs or less in each of his first five career starts against the Snakes.
That included his only start vs. the Diamondbacks in this stadium this year where he allowed just one run and two hits in seven innings.
Trending the ‘under’
Finally, the ‘under’ is now 6-0 in Anderson’s last six starts as an underdog, as well as 4-0 in Despaigne’s last four home starts vs. teams with losing records.
Look for those ‘under’ patterns to continue in this series finale when Arizona visits San Diego at pitcher-friendly Petco Park on Sunday.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks, Padres ‘under’ 7½ (-119)