Diamondbacks host Reds in Rubber Match for our Sunday MLB PIcks

Jay Pryce

Sunday, July 9, 2017 1:18 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 9, 2017 1:18 PM UTC

Homer Bailey is looking to shake off the rust as the Reds pitcher squares off against Patrick Corbin and the Diamondbacks in a pre-break rubber match Sunday afternoon (4:10 p.m. ET). Expect the Arizona lineup to make matters difficult. Pick and betting preview here.

Cincinnati Reds (38-49) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (53-35)

After losing 13 of 14 games through the early part of June, the Reds are playing better than .500 headed into the All-Star break, going 8-6 since. This includes a masterful 3-hit shutout of the Diamondbacks on Saturday night, the staff’s fifth goose egg of the season.

Homer Bailey looks to continue the hot pitching on Sunday. Bailey picked up his first win in three starts since coming back from a 10-month layoff last time out. Yielding 14 earned runs to only 14 outs through his first two efforts, the right-hander rallied for a 1-run, 8-hit performance at Colorado on July 4. His ERA dropped from 27.00 to 12.66 in the win. Bailey’s fastball is fine, but control an issue since returning. He’s walked five and gifted three home runs in 10.2 frames overall.

Bailey, a 10-year veteran, is 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA in four career starts against the D-Backs. This year’s Arizona lineup is slugging in 5.06 runs per game, sixth most in MLB. The Reds are 5-13 SU behind Bailey on the road versus teams scoring 4.66 or better in his career. He and the bullpen allow 5.50 runs on 9.72 hits per game in this spot.

Cincy is 14-27 SU as road underdogs in 2017. Only the Phillies, A’s and Cubs own a worse winning percentage in this situation. Poor pitching is the main problem. The staff allows 5.66 runs per game. The Reds, in fact, are winless (0-23) when ceding 5 runs or more in a contest.


Going back to Sept 11 of last season, the Diamondbacks are 41-16 at Chase Field. Only their NL West rivals the Dodgers (43-12) own more regular-season home wins in MLB. Going into the rubber match versus the Reds on Sunday, Arizona has lost just two home series in this span.

Patrick Corbin gets the honors from manager Torey Lovullo. The southpaw has dropped two of his last three outings, moving him to 6-8 with a 4.81 ERA for the year. A date with Cincy might get Corbin back on track. The Reds are 5-14 SU against southpaws, crossing the plate 4.37 times per tilt.

Corbin is 1-1 with a 3.48 ERA in six career appearances versus the Reds. The current roster has seen little of the left-hander, batting a combined 9-for-42 (.214) against. Only one Reds hitter has double-digit plate appearances: Joey Votto. The Cincy slugger is 1-for-11 with 4 Ks.

Final Analysis

It’s tough to bet against the D-Backs when the offense takes center stage. In games with a total greater than 9 runs, Arizona is 27-10 SU, crossing the plate 6.19 times per game. It is record against staffs allowing more than 4.75 per contest is 16-3 SU. Cincy’s 5.31 runs allowed per tilt is second-most in the majors behind the Orioles (5.34). Look for baseball’s most surprising team to slug out another victory before the break. Eat the chalk for our MLB picks and take Arizona.

MLB Free Picks: Diamondbacks MLBest Lines Offered at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140496, "sportsbooksIds":[238,169,19,999996,93], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here