Detroit vs. Chicago Free MLB Picks: Tigers Too Chalky on the South Side?

Detroit Tigers players gathered around

Saturday, May 27, 2017 1:15 PM GMT

Neither team is above .500 in the AL Central, but the Chicago White Sox still look like the right baseball pick for Saturday’s matinee against the Detroit Tigers.

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains. The Chicago White Sox and the Detroit Tigers were supposed to play a doubleheader Friday, but the first game got washed out. The second game is still on schedule as we go to press; we can’t predict the weather, but we can tell you that the postponement has changed the probable starters for Saturday’s game (2:10 ET), and that might leave some betting value on the MLB odds board.

Here’s the skinny: It was supposed to be Michael Fulmer (3.13 FIP) starting for Detroit against Derek Holland (4.35 FIP), but according to MLB.com, it’ll be Matt Boyd (4.90 FIP) taking the mound for the Tigers instead. That’s a bit of a downgrade for Detroit. They’re –135 road faves at press time, and that might have already been too chalky before the pitching change. Now the White Sox are a lead-pipe MLB pick at this price.

 

Double Dutch

That’s what the math says, at least. FiveThirtyEight projected the Tigers to win Saturday’s matinee 54 percent of the time, which works out to –117 on our handy-dandy SBR Betting Odds Converter. But that was with Fulmer on the hill. Boyd hasn’t been pitching at the same level; Detroit is 3-6 in his nine starts for a loss of 2.42 betting units.

Holland, on the other hand, has led Chicago to a team record of 5-4 and 3.46 units in profit. Buyer beware: Holland has a tiny .242 BABIP this year, which is why his FIP is so high despite a 2.47 ERA. But if I’m not mistaken, the wizards at FiveThirtyEight would have already worked that into their projections.

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Just this 1 time .... i swore I would only don pinstripes 😩 @Dutch_Oven45 ... (it was a gift!) #GoYankees @barstoolsports @Yankees pic.twitter.com/GvRfqwd0bR

— Enzo Amore (@real1) May 22, 2017
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All of this is assuming there aren’t any other shenanigans with pitcher changes or Friday’s second game getting rained out. And of course, you still have to be able to nab the White Sox at +122 (or better) if you want that value. But it’s worth a shot. Good hunting, and may the sphere be with you.



Free MLB Pick: White Sox +132Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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