Despite Quality Pitching, Over Has Great Value As Reds Host Mets

Anthony DeSclafani Pitching

Charles Stark

Wednesday, September 7, 2016 1:06 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 7, 2016 1:06 PM UTC

Two Good pitchers meet today in Cincy as the Reds host the Mets. Our expert handicapper says that the totals are a bit too high, but not high enough. Read on to get his expert opinion 

The New York Mets continue to make a push toward the playoffs as they take on the Cincinnati Reds today in Cincinnati. This a great pitching matchup of two very solid starters with ERA's under 3.00. However, oddsmakers have set a pretty high total considering this fact and it is a National League game. Will we see more runs than anticipated?


New York Mets
Noah Syndergaard takes the mound for New York and comes in with a 2.56 ERA and 1.11 whip but has a 4.05 ERA versus Cincinnati this season. That was just in one start in which he allowed seven hits in six innings allowing Cincinnati to garner three runs, but he still had nine strikeouts. This total really has me wondering quite a bit considering Syndergaard and his counterpart today have been extremely good this season. There is nothing in his overall numbers and current streak of games in which he has allowed 12 earned runs in his last six starts that say there will be more runs than where this total is currently. Still, this kind of anomaly has me believing Cincinnati will put together some quality at-bats today against him. At the plate, although the Mets rank 27th in the league in runs scored per game, 28th in batting average hitting just .243 and 21st in OPS at just .724, they have been swinging the bats a bit better recently. In their last 10 games, they have broken out the lumber on half of those occasions scoring five runs or more so look for them to come into this contest and put together their own solid at-bats.


Cincinnati Reds
Anthony DeSclafani takes the mound for the Reds with a 2.93 ERA and 1.14 whip and a 3.21 ERA with batters hitting .242 against them at home. Like Syndergaard, it is a bit surprising that this total is as high as it is considering DeSclafani's overall numbers this season. He has yet to face New York this season and over his last six starts he has been extremely good allowing just 13 total earned runs in 40 innings of work. Again, this has me shaking my head at why this total is above seven. At the plate Cincinnati, unlike New York, is not hitting particularly well recently and they rank 18th, 20th, and 24th, in runs scored per game, batting average, and OPS respectively. In their last 10 games they have had some really bad days at the plate, but as mentioned they did have some good at-bats against Syndergaard the one time they faced him this season. That fact in combination with this very odd line has me backing over the total today.


MLB odds
Online Oddsmakers have come out with what I think is a really high total for this game at 8 across the board. Looking closely at the pitching matchup combined with two offenses that don't really set the world on fire has me making this an opposite sort of play today for my MLB pick in backing the over. You can get good value as well backing over the total.


July/August record: 30-23-2
September record: 5-1

Free MLB Picks: Over 8
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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