Despite Injuries Giants ML Odds are the Best Value Pick vs. Padres

Darin Zank

Wednesday, September 23, 2015 3:19 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 23, 2015 3:19 PM UTC

Giants ain't dead yet, after picking up another game on the Dodgers in the NL West race with a victory over San Diego Tuesday night. How are we betting tonight's Giants-Padres match-up?

Giants-Padres Wednesday Odds
An early-morning sampling of today's MLB odds revealed the best line available on San Francisco with Jake Peavy was the +101 at Pinnacle, while San Diego with Andrew Cashner could be found at -108 at Heritage.


The Situation
San Francisco took the opener of this series Tuesday night 4-2, beating Tyson Ross as a +125 underdog with a make-shift lineup. So the Giants have won seven of their last 10 games, while San Diego has lost three of its last four.

At 79-71 San Francisco clings to ever-slimming hopes of making the playoffs. The Giants trail the NL West-leading Dodgers by six games the moment, and they host LA for four games next week. If they can just pick up a couple more games on LA, then sweep that series ...

Meanwhile, at 70-81 San Diego has been playing out the string on this season for a while already.

San Francisco leads this season series 11 games to six, with the OVERS going 9-8.


Wednesday's Whirlers
This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played 12 days ago, a 9-1 San Francisco victory.

Cashner (6-15, 4.25), by our strict standards, is 15-for-29 on quality starts this season, two for his last three. Three starts ago he held the Angels to two runs through six innings; next time out he gave up five runs in less than five innings against this Giants lineup; but last Wednesday he held Arizona to three runs through seven innings. On the season Cashner has allowed 189 hits through 174 innings, walked 59, which is a few too many, and struck out 152.

San Diego is 11-18 in Cashner's starts, with the OVERS going 16-11.

In two starts against San Francisco this season Cashner has been tagged for 11 runs – nine earned – through 10 2/3 innings; the Padres lost both those games.

Peavy (7-6, 4.08) is seven-for-16 on quality starts, but two for his last two. Last Wednesday he held Cincinnati to two runs through six innings, with eight strikeouts, and hit a homer. Just before that he limited this San Diego lineup to one run and two hits through seven frames. For the season the former Padre has allowed 88 hits through 93 innings, walked 22 and struck out 68.

The Giants are 9-7 in Peavy's starts, with the OVERS also going 9-7.

In two starts this season against San Diego Peavy has allowed five runs and six hits through 11 innings; San Francisco split those two games, while both games played OVER.


Wednesday's Batting Splits
San Francisco ranks third in the Bigs this season against right-handed pitching with a .328 team on-base percentage, and 10th with a .413 team slugging percentage.

Near the other end of the spectrum San Diego ranks 29th against righties with a pedestrian .298 team OBP and 25th with a .396 team slugging percentage.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Petco Park this season have skewed toward the OVERS by a 42-28 margin, by averaging 8.4 runs per.


Giants-Padres Free Pick
We don't usually like San Francisco without Hunter Pence, because he seems like such a spark-plug for that team, but in this instance motivation plays the key factor in our handicapping of this game. The Giants still think they've got a shot at the playoffs, and will play accordingly, while San Diego plays for nothing but pride. And pride doesn't pay the bills. So despite the injuries we'll go with San Francisco for our free MLB pick.

MLB Pick: Giants +101 at Pinnacle

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