Despite Having Harvey on the Mound, Pick Mets-Diamondbacks to go Over

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, June 4, 2015 12:02 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapping professional provides us with a betting preview article on Thursday’s game between the Mets & Diamondbacks. This enlightening piece culminates with his pick on the total.

Mets to open a Four Game Series in Arizona
The Diamondbacks will host the Mets tonight at 9:40 PM ET. The MLB betting odds at Pinnacle have the Mets as a -140 money line favorite, and the posted total is 8.5. This will be the first meeting of the season between these teams.

 

Starting Pitchers
The Mets will go with their ace Matt Harvey on the mound tonight. The power pitching and dominant right-hander has actually looked human during his previous two starts. In those two outings, he allowed 11 earned runs in 12.0 innings pitched. Both of those games went over the total.

Jeremy Hellickson will be making his eleventh start of the season on Thursday for Arizona. Hellickson has posted a lofty 5.08 ERA this season, and the majority of his issues have come at home. Hellickson has posted a large 6.57 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in four starts in Arizona. On a positive note, he’s displayed very good form during his previous three starts overall.

 

Team Notes
The New York Mets have some drastically different home and away splits so far in 2015. They’ve gone an outstanding 21-8 in their home park, but are a miserable 8-17 on the road, and that includes a dismal 3-14 if those road tilts are played at night. The Mets have gone over the total in the last three, and in nine of their last eleven games. They’ve also gone over the total in each of their previous five games on the road.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been on an offensive tear of late, scoring 7 runs or more in five of their last six games. Unfortunately, they’ve also allowed 6 runs or more in each of their previous four. The Diamondbacks have gone 5-0-1 over the total during their previous six, and 9-3-1 over the number in the last thirteen games.

 

Final Analysis
It’s highly unusual for a total to be this high (8.5) in a game that features Matt Harvey on the mound. As a matter of fact, Harvey’s first ten starts this season have all had a total of 7.0 or less, and nine of the ten were at 6.5 or less. On the surface, this would appear to be a terrific value on wagering under the total. However, it’s never that easy, and the major sports-books just don’t give money away. Both teams in this game have played over the total with regularity of late. Arizona has gone 17-8-2 over the total at home this season. Those games have averaged a combined 10.2 runs per outing, and that’s an extremely high number for a National League ball park. My lean is toward a high scoring affair for one of my MLB picks on Thursday.

MLB Pick: Play Over 8.5 at Pinnacle.