deGrom & Odorizzi Signal MLB Picks 'Under' for Mets vs. Rays

Charles Stark

Friday, August 7, 2015 11:19 AM GMT

After analyzing today's MLB odds in search of the best over/under pick, the matchup which stands out the most is between the surging New York Mets and the Tampa Bay Rays.

Mets vs. Rays MLB Odds
MLB odds makers have set this line at 6.5 and at most sports books there is a little bit of extra juice attached that from -110 to -115. The best odds I have seen are at Pinnacle sports that have the under the 6.5 at -110. With these two solid starters on the mound I anticipate a really low-scoring affair.

 

New York Mets
For the Mets deGrom gets the start and has just been solid all season with a 2.09 ERA, 0.89 whip, 135 strikeouts, and the 10-6 record. On the road this year is ERA does jump to 2.69 but overall he consistently gives the Mets quality starts. In his last five starts he has only allowed seven earned runs in over 30 innings pitched, and his worst outing in his last 10 starts was where he allowed just three earned runs to the Chicago Cubs. In his other nine starts out of those 10 he has been absolutely lights out.

Although the Mets are surging and they do have some new pieces in that lineup they could struggle a bit today against a really good pitcher in Odorizzi. The Mets rank 28th in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 3.69, 28th in the major leagues in OPS at .673, and have the worst batting average in the major leagues at .238. In runs scored per game and OPS those averages actually go down on the road while their batting average remains the same. I understand the Mets are kind of a different monster right now but Odorizzi is very sharp and a very good home pitcher.

 

Tampa Bay
Odorizzi takes the mound with a 2.86 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 87 strikeouts, and a 6-6 record. At home he has been fantastic with a 1.41 ERA and a 0.92 whip. After getting roughed up in Toronto four starts back he has been solid in his last three allowing six earned runs over 17 innings while keeping the hit totals down. In his last three home starts he is only allowed two earned runs, look for him to continue his dominating fashion in Tampa Bay.

Like the Mets offensively Tampa Bay is one of the lower ranked offenses in the major leagues ranking 26th in runs scored per game at 3.71, 22nd in OPS at .695, and 26th in team batting average hitting .242. Much like the Mets on the road, all of Tampa Bay's major offensive statistics go down at home.

Between all the good pitching matchup's that are on the board today this is the game that jumped out at me the most with the pitching and hitting disparity between these teams. Both deGrom and Odorizzi should throw up a lot of zeros against these two mediocre to poor offenses. I like how the Mets have resurged after the trade deadline but they should struggle a little bit today to score runs. This has all the makings of a 2-1 or 1-0 type of game, back the under as your Friday MLB pick with confidence.

MLB Picks: Under 6.5