deGrom & Cashner at Pitcher's Park Screams 'Over' for Mets vs. Padres MLB Picks

Ross Benjamin

Monday, June 1, 2015 12:19 PM GMT

Our resident MLB handicapping professional comes off a 2-0 Sunday at SBR. He’s providing us with a betting preview article today on the Mets vs. Padres & his MLB pick. This intriguing piece includes his money line selection as well.

Mets fly out West to take on Padres
The Padres host the Mets on Monday at Petco Park in San Diego with the first pitch slated for 10:10 PM ET. According to the MLB betting odds at Bookmaker, San Diego is a -116 money line favorite, and the posted total is 6.5. This will be the first meeting of the season between these teams.

 

Starting Pitchers
The Mets right-hander Jacob Degrom will be on the mound tonight. He’s gone 6-4 in his first ten team starts with a stellar 2.71 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and just short of a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Degrom has been in excellent form over his previous three starts, posting a terrific 1.27 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, and struck out 26 while walking just 1. However, all three of those starts came at Citi Field in New York where he’s been lights out in 2015. Unfortunately for the Mets, he’s been awful in three road starts this year, compiling a large 6.75 ERA, and allowing 6 home runs in only 16.0 innings pitched. Degrom will be facing a Padres team tonight with a winning percentage of .481 thus far, and he’s gone 10-2 over the total versus opponents with a losing record since the start of the 2014 MLB campaign.

The Padres will go with righty Andrew Cashner on Monday. Cashner can certainly be classified as a tough luck pitcher thus far. He’s gone 2-8 in his team starts despite posting a stellar 3.00 ERA. Cashner has made one career start versus the Mets and it was an unimpressive outing. It came on 6/13/2014 at Citi Field, and he allowed 4 earned runs on 8 hits in 6.0 innings during a 6-2 Padres loss.

 

Final Analysis and Money Line Angle
The Mets have gone 6-2 over the total during their past eight games. The Padres are 4-0-1 over the total in their last five, and are 31-20-1 over the number in the first 52 games of the season.

Any National League road team playing in the first half of the season that has an on base percentage of .310 or less, and is facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.25 to 1.30, resulted in that road team going 50-19 (72.5%) over the total since the beginning of the 2011 season. I like this game to play on the high side of this posted total for one of my MLB picks on Monday.

MLB Pick: Mets and Padres to go over the total of 6.5 at Bookmaker.

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