Dangerous Dog at Dodgers Stadium: Pick D'Backs +147 & Go 'Over' MLB Odds Total

Darin Zank

Tuesday, June 9, 2015 12:37 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 9, 2015 12:37 PM UTC

The Dodgers lead the NL West, but have only been treading water as of late. Still, they're solid MLB odds favorites for Tuesday night's contest with visiting Arizona.

D'Backs-Dodgers Tuesday Betting Line
As of early Tuesday morning the best line we could find on Los Angeles and Carlos Frias were -149 offered at BetOnline, while WagerWeb was offering Arizona and lefty Robbie Ray at +143. And MLB odds were listing the total on tonight's game at 7.5.


The Situation
LA took the opener of this series Monday night 9-3, beating Arizona for the seventh straight time at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles also leads the season series with the Snakes five games to two.

Even with Monday's victory the Dodgers are only 5-8 over their last 13 games.

Arizona, meanwhile, had won six of nine to get within a game of the .500 mark, but has lost its last two.
At 33-25 the Dodgers lead the NL West by a game over second-place San Francisco, while the Diamondbacks, at 27-30, trail LA by 5.5 games.


Tuesday's Starting Pitchers
Frias (4-3, 4.25), by our strict standards, is only two-for-seven on quality starts this season. A couple weeks ago he got bombed for 10 runs in four innings against San Diego; he then held St. Louis to one unearned run through seven innings; but last time out he gave up five runs – three earned – and 10 hits through 6 2/3 innings, also against the Cardinals. On the season Frias has allowed 52 hits through 42 1/3 innings; LA is 3-4 in Frias' starts, with the totals leaning OVER by a 4-2 margin.

In his one career start against Arizona, five weeks ago, Frias threw 5 1/3 innings of scoreless ball in an 8-0 Dodgers victory. Ray (1-0, 0.82) is one-for-two on quality starts this season. Last Thursday he came close to another QS, holding the Mets scoreless through five innings, although he needed 110 pitches to get those 15 outs. Ray came up with a quality outing in a spot start a month ago against Colorado, then returned to Triple-A Reno. With some injuries in the Arizona rotation Ray is back with the Big Club.

Last year, as a rookie with Detroit, Ray went 1-4 with an 8.16 ERA.

This will be Ray's first-ever start vs. the Dodgers, which may give him an advantage, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.


Tuesday's Batting Splits
Arizona ranks 12th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .318 team OBP.

The LA Dodgers ranks 20th this year against lefties with a .311 OBP. Perhaps that's why, at least in part, the Dodgers, a team that's eight games over .500 overall, are just 3-6 against LH starters this year.


Betting Trends
Games played at Dodger Stadium this season are 21-11 on the OVERS, even though they're averaging a very normal 7.8 runs per. Apparently, odds makers have been underestimating the totals on Dodger home games.

Arizona is 7-2-2 on the OVERS over its last 11 games.


D'Backs-Dodgers Free Picks
All things considered, we believe the value on tonight's line, despite their recent struggles at Dodger Stadium, resides with the visiting Diamondbacks. Also, with the relatively low total we're thinking OVER for our MLB picks.

MLB Picks: Arizona +143 at WagerWeb and OVER 7.5 runs at 5Dime

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