Dangerous Dog in Boston Offers Bettors Lucrative Opportunity to Beat the Odds

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, June 15, 2015 1:54 PM UTC

Monday, Jun. 15, 2015 1:54 PM UTC

This big dog of the day is keyed by a pitching mismatch and profoundly negative momentum for the favored team. Join us to find out which MLB pick will help you win big tonight!

Atlanta Braves (W. Perez) vs. Boston Red Sox (Porcello)  7:10 ET
The Atlanta Braves travel to Boston following their 8-10 come-from-ahead loss at the NY Mets yesterday.  They will be facing a Boston team who has lost 6 straight games with a pitching staff that has been totally bashed in that timeframe with a 6.96 ERA. This is the first of a 4-game interleague set with the Red Sox hosting the first two, prior to the venue moving on Wednesday to Atlanta.  This is also one of 5 games which have seen a massive move on the favorite at Pinnacle Sports Book.  Since opening numbers were posted on Sunday, favored teams such as Pittsburgh, Detroit, Baltimore, Boston and Houston have all moved 20 cents or more from the opening number.  No line has moved more than this .35 cent move on the Boston Red Sox.  We gladly step in with the value against this move.

The Boston Red Sox may be the biggest underachieving team in MLB.  With an expected improvement in their hitting fortunes due to the addition of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, along with what was perceived to be an emerging starting staff, the Red Sox were expected to contend for AL East superiority.   Today, they enter on a 15-27 slide (after a 12-10 start).  The current demise has reached 6 consecutive games in which they have allowed 43 runs with a team ERA of 6.96.  With OPS numbers, they are in the bottom 3rd in both hitting and pitching. There is little reason to expect significant improvement.  Today’s starter, Porcello, is certainly not the answer.  A 5.26 ERA is largely a function of his previous 4 starts in which Porcello has a 7.30 ERA.  That was hardly aided by his previous start in which Porcello lasted just 5 1/3 innings, allowing 5 runs on 10 hits.

The Atlanta Braves have been meandering the entire season.  At 30-33, with OPS numbers that are roughly equivalent to Boston, the Braves show little upside for the long term.  A bright light for them has been the emergence of Williams Perez as part of the starting rotation.  In 5 starts, Perez has a 1.80 ERA.  

In this Big Dog pitching mismatch, we must step in with a play on Atlanta at a value price, if for no other reason than to continue to play against the Red Sox as we have for most of last week with our MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Take Atlanta Braves +158 at BetOnline

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