Daily Upset Alert: MLB Moneyline Underdog Picks

Daily Upset Alert: MLB Moneyline Underdog Picks
Ronald Acuna Jr. #13 of the Atlanta Braves. Rob Carr/Getty Images/AFP

The MLB playoffs are quickly progressing towards the World Series as the new format has games constantly on. It’s been great to have even a limited season back, and October baseball just feels right. This game, we have Game 7 between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers. The winner will face the Tampa Bay Rays in the World Series.

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Sunday, October 18th at 08:15pm ET at Minute Maid Park

Probable Pitchers

  • Atlanta: Ian Anderson (3-2 1.95 ERA)
  • Los Angeles: Walker Buehler (1-0 3.44 ERA)* (still undecided)

We have a second Game 7 at the championship series level, and baseball fans should be as excited for this one as they were for the Rays and Houston Astros matchup. The Atlanta Braves have defied all logic with their injured pitching staff and pushed the heavy favorite to the brink of elimination. All that stands between them and another chance at a World Series title is one more upset. Currently the top sportsbooks that have listed odds, have the Dodgers as -142 favorites.

That's easier said than done, of course. They'll face Walker Buehler, who has a career 24-9 record and 3.15 ERA. The 26-year-old hasn't been around too long despite the impressive numbers though, with only eight starts and 36 innings this season.  (editor's note, please be advised that at press time the Dodgers pitcher is currently listed as "undecided")

He's been somewhat of a tempting talent throughout his career. The numbers look good and he's effective but his limited career contributions have been a tough limitation for the team to deal with. He's throwing on a huge stage against an even more effective pitcher, too.

Ian Anderson #48 of the Atlanta Braves. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images/AFP

Ian Anderson has been a 22-year-old wunderkind. 

He's been excellent in six career starts after being forced into the big show due to injuries. The rookie hasn't allowed an earned run since one-month ago despite being off with his control last start. He's advanced at figuring out how to create outs and limit runs even when parts of his game aren't as functional as usual.

Anderson's a massive problem for the Dodgers. He allowed five walks in four innings last week against the Dodgers but still helped the Braves win. It's conceivable his control is regained and he limits the lineup to even less baserunners and scoring opportunities. 

The Dodgers' lineup hasn't really been an issue this series though. They've won games with runs totaling three, seven, 15 and lost a game with seven runs produced. It's more surprising they won with only three runs last night based on their ability to explode.

Anderson has the talent to keep this lineup in control unlike some of the other lesser arms that Atlanta's been forced to trot out. This is tough to predict because of the power factor within the Dodgers' lineup, of course, but we're playing the odds and value with picks. 

That means we want the team with the better pitcher and believe that he'll keep this a low-scoring game. Taking the Dodgers justifies taking the over because they're not usually a team that wins with a low-scoring game, whereas they'll lose a low-scoring contest. And since this is the underdog moneyline line of the day, that's where we're leaning.

The Dodgers have continued to get inflated favorite odds all year and that bubble may burst with spectacular fashion in Game 7. There's so much pressure on this team and franchise to finally win it all after being the favorite that it's easy to foresee that caving in on them and causing significant change within the coaching staff and maybe roster.

Let's play for value.

Free MLB Pick: Atlanta +125 and over 8 at Even money at Bovada (visit our Bovada review)

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