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Daily Upset Alert: MLB Moneyline Underdog Picks

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Daily Upset Alert: MLB Moneyline Underdog Picks
Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Home teams have struggled in this unusual MLB postseason. In this article, we go over why the Padres and Dodgers are on upset alert this Thursday and include updated MLB odds and our betting picks.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres

Thursday, October 01, 2020 – 05:08 PM EDT at Petco Park

Injuries forced Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger, two of San Diego's best pitchers, to miss this series against St. Louis. The Padres turned to Chris Paddack for the series opener and he struggled. Paddack he lasted only 2 1/3 innings and gave up six earned runs in a 7-4 loss yesterday.

Now, on the brink of elimination, the Padres will give the ball to Zach Davies. He was pitching well as of late but he doesn't have a good track record against the Cardinals. Davis is just 2-3 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 10 career starts against St. Louis and Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt and Yadier Molina all hit Davis well. Carpenter is 12-for-25 with four doubles, three home runs and four RBIs.

The Padres have a dangerous lineup but they will go against Adam Wainwright, who is 7-4 with a 2.19 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 15 appearances (12 starts) against them. Wainwright is just 1-4 at Petco Park but he has a 3.03 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in six appearances (five starts). The value is on the Cardinals, FiveThirtyEight gives them a 46 percent chance to win this game for a +117 price using SBR's Odds converter and the actual MLB odds have them at +144.

My Pick: Cardinals +144 at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

Cardinals+144
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Thursday, October 01, 2020 - 10:08 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium

We had the Dodgers on the run line as one of our MLB picks last night and it cashed. Tonight we have Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Kershaw is a future Hall of Famer, his resume includes three National League Cy Young Awards and a National League MVP trophy but he's been remarkably ordinary in the postseason:

Regular Season: 175 wins, 76 losses, 2.43 ERA, 158 ERA+, 4.32 K/BB ratio, 6.8 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.74 FIP, 1.003 WHIP

Postseason: 9 wins, 11 losses, 4.33 ERA, 3.78 K/BB ratio, 7.4 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 1.105 WHIP

FiveThirtyEight gives the Brewers a 33 percent chance to win this game. This puts the odds for their projections at +203 using SBR's Odds converter. You can find the Brewers at +215 at YouWager and I will take a chance on them against Kershaw. Don't bet the farm on the Brewers, this is a small, fun wager, the Dodgers are the best team in the majors and they have a formidable lineup. I just can't trust Kershaw in the postseason.

My Pick: Brewers +215 at YouWager (visit our YouWager Review)

Brewers+215
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