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Daily Upset Alert: MLB Moneyline Underdog Picks

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Daily Upset Alert: MLB Moneyline Underdog Picks
Masahiro Tanaka - Photo by Elsa/Getty Images/AFP

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

Saturday, August 1, 2020 – 7:07pm EST

Probable Pitchers:

  • Boston: Zack Godley (0-0 0.00 ERA)
  • New York: Masahiro Tanaka (0-0 0.00 ERA)

The Yankees are doing what they usually do. That’s win ball games. They’re now 5-1 on this shortened season and will send out Masahiro Tanaka on the mound to make his first start of the season.

Tanaka has some really bad history against the Red Sox. In 219 at bats, Red Sox batters have hit 30 extra base hits while hitting 12 home runs with just 39 strikeouts and 15 walks.  The Red Sox have hit .288 with a .335 on base percentage.

Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, and Mitch Moreland all have spectacular numbers against Tanaka in their careers. Combined they’ve hit 10 home runs, 20 extra base hits, and all have an average north of .300 (except for Moreland who has a .296 average).

Tanaka struggled with lefties last season as they hit .285 with an OBP of .331. Still, Tanaka went 8-3 at home with a 3.10 ERA. Can the Tanaka who had a concussion perform really enough in this game? Potentially or potentially not.

The Red Sox will pitch Zack Godley who is coming off a solid performance against the Mets in his first start of the season. Godley allowed four hits and no runs while striking out seven and walking none in four innings of work. Godley also performed better on the road last season but barely started, so I like that for this MLB pick.

Godley only started nine games last season and three on the road. He was able to leave 65.60 percent of runners on base last season but walked 4.11 batters per nine innings.

Zack Godley Boston Red Sox
Zack Godley - Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images/AFP

Prediction

As long as Godley limits walks in this game, there’s no reason why the Red Sox shouldn’t have a chance to win this game as heavy underdogs at +170 with BetOnline. (visit our BetOnline Review) The Red Sox bats have so much history against Tanaka, who is starting his first game of the season.

Godley, on the other hand, got his feet wet and looked very good against the Mets in his first start. There's too much love for Tanaka in this one by the MLB odds.

Red Sox+170
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Colorado Rockies
Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies

Saturday August 1, 2020 – 8:10pm EST

Probable Pitchers:

  • San Diego: Joey Lucceshi (0-0 4.91 ERA)
  • Colorado: Kyle Freeland (1-0 3.00 ERA)

Friday was our first ever game with a DH in Coors Field. It didn’t disappoint with 15 runs coming across home plate in the 24-hit shootout.

The Rockies ended up choking the game away and lost 9-8. Now they’ll look to rebound in this one behind Kyle Freeland.

Freeland went six innings in his first start against the Texas Rangers and allowed four hits and two runs (1 HR) with five strikeouts and three walks.

Freeland had a 9.25 ERA at home going 2-4 in 10 games. In those ten games, he allowed opponents to hit .337 on the season. Freeland had a 7.21 ERA at night while lefties and righties both hit near .300 against him on the season.

Joey Lucchesi wasn’t much better in these circumstances. Lucchesi went 3.2 innings and allowed five hits and two runs with two strikeouts and one walk in his last start. In that start, he allowed nine fly balls in 3.2 innings pitched.

If he does that against the Rockies, he could have a much shorter outing in this one. His numbers from previous seasons don’t indicate that he’s a high fly ball pitcher however.

What his numbers do indicate was that he was bad away from home as he had a 6.22 ERA, going 2-6 with an OBA of .289 last year. 

Prediction

The Rockies are slight underdogs going up against the Padres who stole one from them on Friday. If Lucchesi struggles to keep the ball on the ground or off bats, he’ll struggle to win this game.

I’m not saying Freeland is better but Freeland did show some solid pitching in his first start. With the Rockies at home going up against a pitcher who struggled badly on the road, there’s a chance that the Rockies can pull out the upset win. The sportsbooks are giving us a gift.

Rockies+110
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