Daily Pitching Report for MLB Bettors 7/05

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, July 5, 2014 2:15 PM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 5, 2014 2:15 PM UTC

Our MLB betting odds connoisseur Ross Benjamin provides his daily MLB starting pitching report, and looks at 4 starting pitchers on the Saturday slate. Read this article to find out who holds the starting pitching edge in each of these 2-games.

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Milwaukee Brewers (Garza) vs. Cincinnati Reds (Bailey) 4:10 PM ET

  • The Brewers starter Matt Garza has gone 1-3 against the money line over his last 4-starts while still posting a very good 3.18 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Brewers right-hander has seen all 3 of his starts versus the Reds go over the total since the start of the 2013 season. In those 3-starts he’s posted a large 7.88 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. In Garza’s 7 career starts versus the Reds he hasn’t seen any of those contests stay under the total. Garza has seen 10 of his 12-starts go over the total during the last 2-seasons when he’s installed as a money line underdog of +100 to +150. The average total scored in those 12-contests was 10.4 runs per game.
  • The Reds starter Homer Bailey is coming off a stellar performance in his last start that saw him toss a complete game 3-hit shutout versus the San Francisco Giants. Bailey has seen his last 5 starts versus the Brewers go over the total, and 8 of his last 9-starts versus a NL Central opponent have surpassed the number. Bailey has pitched much better during the day than at night this season. The Reds right-hander has posted a very good 2.01 ERA in 6-starts when cast into that role.

Advantage: A small edge to Homer Bailey over Matt Garza

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Toronto (Buehrle) vs. Oakland (Kazmir) 10:05 PM ET

  • The Blue Jays starter Mark Buehrle has been a bit vulnerable to allowing the long ball over his last 5-starts. Buehrle allowed just 2 home runs in his first 14-starts of the season, which encompassed 81 1/3 innings of work. The veteran southpaw has allowed 6 home runs during his last 5-starts in just 34.0 innings. Despite a recent bump in the road, Buehrle is enjoying a great start to the year going 12-5 against the money line with a stellar 2.50 ERA. He’s been especially tough on the road going 6-2 versus the money line with a terrific 2.05 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
  • The A’s starter Scott Kazmir has been lights out at home this season going 6-1 against the money line with a sparkling 1.61 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and a 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s seen 6 of those 7 home starts go under the total. Like his pitching adversary today, the A’s southpaw has been prone to allowing home runs recently. Consider the fact that he allowed just 5 home runs during his first 14-starts this season entailing 88.0 innings of work. Then in his last 3-starts, Kazmir has allowed 5 homers in 15 1/3 innings, and it becomes a small bit of concern. On a more positive note, Kazmir is 42-12 versus the money line in his career as a favorite of -125 to -175.

Advantage: Slightest of edges goes to Scott Kazmir over Mark Buehrle, in what otherwise seems to be a premier, and evenly matched starting pitching spectacle.

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