Daily Pitching Report & Free MLB Picks for Sunday 9/28

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, September 27, 2014 10:33 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 27, 2014 10:33 PM UTC

It’s the final Daily Pitching Report of the 2014 regular season, and our MLB betting odds guru examines a pair of starting pitching clashes. This is a must read, and will uncover betting values in the games between the Braves/Phillies and Marlins/Nationals.


Braves vs. Phillies 1:35 PM ET
The Braves Alex Wood has turned in a very good season in the National League East, despite his money line record not indicating as much. In 24-starts this season, Wood has posted a stellar 2.59 ERA, and saw just 6 of the 24 (25%) go over the total. Wood hasn’t seen any of his last 7-starts go over the total, and posted a superb 2.03 ERA during that time. Wood has faced the Phillies in 2-starts during the 2014 campaign, and posted a shining 1.29 ERA.

Philadelphia Phillies veteran Cole Hamels has displayed this season, there’s still a lot of gas left in his tank. In 29-starts while pitching for a last place team, Hamels has posted a sparkling 2.47 ERA. He hasn’t given up more than 3 earned runs in a start since a home outing versus the Rockies on May 27th. He enters tonight in terrific form over his last 3-starts, with a 1.71 ERA, and compiling an almost 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Hamels has gone a perfect 3-0 against the money versus the Braves with a paltry 0.45 ERA.

Advantage: This was a very tough call for many reasons. I’m not willing to give either of these guys the betting advantage tonight. However, I’m calling for this to be a pitcher’s duel low scoring affair, and would advise you to take the 'Under' for your MLB picks.

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Marlins vs. Nationals 1:35 PM ET
The Marlins young right-hander Henderson Alvarez takes to the mound for the final time in 2014, and what a year he’s had, as those placing MLB picks on him can confirm. Alvarez has gone an outstanding 20-9 against the money with a solid 2.70 ERA. He enters this final appearance of the season displaying excellent form over his last 3-starts by posting an excellent 1.31 ERA. In 3-starts versus the Nationals this season, Alvarez has a glittering 0.51 ERA.

The Nationals will counter with Jordan Zimmerman, and all he’s done this season is go 22-9 against the money, and posted a very good 2.81 ERA. As a matter of fact, the Nationals hurler has gone a perfect 10-0 against the money in his last 10, and had an impressive 1.65 ERA in those starts. Zimmerman has gone 3-2 against the money versus the Marlins this year, posted a 4.31 ERA, and saw 4 of those 5 go over the total. It must be noted, those numbers versus the Marlins in 2014 were skewed by a horrible start in the first of those 5-outings, and that occurred way back on April 9th.

Advantage: The only dent in Henderson Alvarez’s armor has been the fact that he’s nowhere near as good on the road, than he’s been at home. Jordan Zimmerman will enter the postseason, win, lose, or draw today, by being on a red-hot roll. After reviewing SBR's live MLB odds, I’m giving a slight lean to Zimmerman of the Nationals over Alvarez of the Marlins. 

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