Daily MLB Picks & Predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Marlins 4-Game Series

Darin Zank

Monday, May 18, 2015 2:06 PM GMT

Monday, May. 18, 2015 2:06 PM GMT

Miami is the second team this season to fire its manager. Will the change make an immediate impact when the Marlins begin a four-game series with Arizona Monday night?

Monday's Betting Odds
As of early Monday AM most MLB betting odds were favoring Miami and Dan Haren at around -125 over Arizona and Rubby De La Rosa, with a total of eight runs. Also, BetOnline was chalking the Marlins at -155 to win this series, with the Diamondbacks getting +135.

Click here to check out another capper's take for this game

The Situation
Miami just got swept three games at home by Atlanta, losing 5-3 Friday, 5-3 Saturday and 6-0 Sunday. In fact the Marlins came within one out of getting no-hit yesterday. Just before that Miami lost two of three to the Dodgers; just before that the Marlins split four games with San Francisco; just before that they dropped two of three to Washington. So Miami hasn't won a series since taking two of three from Philly to begin this month. But actually, since starting this season 3-11 the Marlins are 13-11. Still, the team just fired manager Mike Redmond, apparently replacing him with general manager Dan Jennings, which is an interesting move.

Miami is also 5-1 on the OVERS in its last six games, but that's mainly because it's played against some low totals.

Arizona, meanwhile, just got swept three games at Philadelphia over the weekend, losing Friday 4-3, Saturday 7-5 and Sunday 6-0. Just before that the D-Backs lost two of three to Washington; just before that they lost two of the last three games of a series against San Diego. So Arizona is 2-7 over its last nine games.

Also, the Diamondbacks are 7-3 on the OVERS during their last 10 games, mainly because their pitching has been a bit too generous as of late.

Bigger-picture, Miami, at 16-22, and Arizona, at 15-21, both sit 5.5 games off the pace in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

This is the first meeting between these teams this season; last year the Marlins took the season series from the Diamondbacks four games to three, with the totals leaning UNDER 4-3.

If you're looking for more betting action, you can't miss our MLB picks of the day!

Monday's Starters
Haren is four-for-seven on quality starts this season. Last Tuesday he got nicked for six runs and 11 hits in less than five innings by the Dodgers, but in his two starts previous to that he allowed just two runs through 13 innings. For the season Haren has allowed 17 runs and 37 hits in 41 1/3 innings, with 28 strikeouts and eight walks; Miami, a team that's six games under .500 overall, is 5-2 in Haren's starts, with the totals skewing toward the OVERS by a 6-0 margin thanks to some decent run support.

Haren, who won 37 games for Arizona back in 2008-10, started five times last year for the Dodgers against the Diamondbacks, giving up 13 earned runs and 39 hits through 31 1/3 innings; LA won four of those five games.

De La Rosa is just two-for-six on quality starts this year. Last Tuesday he gave up four runs in seven innings against the Nationals, while just before that he threw seven shutout innings against the Padres. On the season De La Rosa has allowed 22 ER and 41 hits through 44 innings, with a K/BB ratio of 42/12, which is nice. Arizona is 4-3 in De La Rosa's starts, with the totals leaning OVER 4-2.

This will be De La Rosa's first-ever start against Miami.

 

In the Pens
When handicapping baseball totals we put a lot of importance on the bullpens. And with the early numbers these two pens are putting up we're leaning toward the OVERS for this series. The Miami bullpen ranks 22nd in the Majors with a 4.23 ERA, with four saves against eight blown saves; the Arizona pen ranks 25th in ERA at 4.65, with just two saves and seven blown saves. How is that even possible?

On the season these teams are a combined 42-28 on the OVERS; think the bullpens might have anything to do with that?

 

Monday's Batting Splits
Arizona ranks 13th in the Majors this season with a .317 team OBP against right-handed pitching, while Miami ranks 16th at .314 against righties.

 

Monday's Free MLB Picks
Haren might be in line for a bounce-back effort tonight, and the change at manager might provide a spark. Milwaukee fired its manager a couple of weeks ago, then immediately beat Clay Kershaw. So we like the home team to begin this series with a victory. Also, as mentioned above, the bullpens lead us to believe tonight's game will go OVER for our MLB picks.

Free MLB Picks: Miami -122 at Heritage and OVER eight runs at GT Bets

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