Daily MLB Picks: Best O/U Games To Make Your Own Circus Catch

Saturday, April 16, 2016 11:56 AM GMT

Seattle's Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers of his era, but he sure doesn't get much help at times from his offense. Will he on Saturday? Here are my MLB picks for the day.

Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees (Total Of 7.5 On MLB odds)
This is the earliest-starting game of the day at 1:05 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium. And it features a pair of former AL Cy Young winners in Seattle's Hernandez (2010) and New York lefty CC Sabathia (2007). King Felix is still pitching at that type of level, but Sabathia is way past his prime.

In his last start, Hernandez lowered his season ERA to 0.69 by shutting out Oakland on three hits over seven innings, striking out 10 and walking two. But he took a no-decision because the Mariners lost 2-1. Some interesting stats on Hernandez and tough-luck losses: It was the 45th start in Hernandez's brilliant career in which he allowed zero runs or one run and didn't get credit for a win.

That's tied with Arizona's Zack Greinke for the most among active pitchers. The 45 winless games account for 13.4 percent of Hernandez's career starts. He is 0-5 in those 45 games with a 0.88 ERA in 317 innings, allowing just 199 hits and striking out 340. A case can be made the Hernandez is the unluckiest pitcher in big-league history in that regard.

Must Read: Jason Lake's Prediction On This Game

The right-hander has had good career success against the Yankees. Hernandez is 9-6 with a 3.18 ERA in 19 career starts against them and 5-1 with a 1.38 in eight starts at the new Yankee Stadium. Mark Teixeria has hit him well, batting .319 with six homers and 13 RBIs in 69 at-bats but also 16 strikeouts. Sabathia (1-0, 4.50) is frankly only in the rotation because of his massive salary.

His lone start of the season was last Saturday in Detroit when he allowed three runs over six innings. Former Yankee Robinson Cano is 2-for-12 career off him with four strikeouts.

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Free MLB Pick: 'Under.' It is 17-8 in Hernandez's past 17 on the road. It's 4-0 in Sabathia's past four at home.
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins (8 In MLB Betting)
If Atlanta lost in the series opener between these two on Friday night, the Braves could set the franchise record for worst start in team history at 0-11 here with another defeat. Already you are hearing rumors that Manager Fredi Gonzalez's job could be in trouble. GM John Coppolella is ticked off: "The Braves are a gold-standard organization, and to start out the season in this manner is embarrassing and unacceptable."

What did he expect? The Braves have traded nearly everyone of note other than Freddie Freeman. Everyone knows this. Atlanta won't have a great shot at winning here most likely as it starts arguably one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball in journeyman Bud Norris. Guy had a 6.72 ERA combined with two teams last year and is just filling space in the Atlanta rotation for now until some young pitchers are ready.

Norris is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA this season, with both outings coming against the Washington Nationals. Norris didn't face Miami last year. Only a few Marlins have ever faced him. Martin Prado is 2-for-7 with two walks. Miami counters with Tom Koehler (0-1, 2.84). His lone start of the season was also against the Nationals, allowing two runs in 6.1 innings.

Koehler was 2-2 with a 3.67 ERA in five appearances last year against Atlanta. Freeman is 6-for-27 with 11 strikeouts off him. A.J. Pierzynski has two homers and seven hits in 15 at-bats off Koehler.

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Free MLB Pick: 'Over.' It is 4-1 in Koehler's past five overall and 3-1-1 in his last five against the Braves.
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (6.5 For MLB picks)
It's the second straight start that the Giants' Johnny Cueto (2-0, 4.50) and Dodgers lefty Scott Kazmir (1-0, 5.40) will face off – both were traded during last season to contenders and then signed with their respective NL West teams as free agents this past offseason.

On Sunday in San Francisco, the Giants beat the Dodgers 9-6 as Kazmir was roughed up for six runs and seven hits in four innings, although he avoided the loss. Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Angel Pagan all homered off him. Kazmir had been brilliant in his Dodgers debut, allowing just one hit over six innings in San Diego.

Cueto got the win in that first meeting despite allowing six runs and 10 hits in seven innings. Chase Utley might get the start at second for the Dodgers here over Howie Kendrick as Utley hits Cueto well in his career, going 10-for-24 with a homer and two RBIs. Adrian Gonzalez is 5-for-16 with a double, homer and three RBIs against Cueto.

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Free MLB Pick: 'Over.' I'm sure both will be better than in the first outing, but this total is too low. 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline