Current MLB Odds Provide Unexpected Value On Twins To Beat The Orioles

Thursday, July 28, 2016 3:24 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 28, 2016 3:24 PM UTC

It's not often in MLB odds when a team with a significant losing record is favored over a team that is a division leader. Can the Twins pull out a W today vs The Orioles?

MLB odds have made Minnesota of -110 favorite like at Pinnacle Sports. Although it is not easy to go against Baltimore but for my MLB pick, I believe this a good spot to go ahead and do just that. Minnesota has not been good at all this season but they do have the better pitcher on the mound, are at home, and more competitive than their record indicates.


Baltimore Orioles
Ubaldo Jimenez takes the mound for the Orioles with an eye-popping 7.38 ERA and 1.97 whip while the Orioles are hitting .265 as a team which ranks sixth in the major leagues. Jimenez is, for the most part, better than his current numbers with a career 4.18 ERA and 1.39 whip, however, he has been simply horrible this season which puts some value in going against him today in Minnesota. In his last 10 starts, he has only had three decent outings and two of those were against San Diego who is among the worst hitting teams in the National League. He has been arguably the worst starter in all of baseball his last two times on the mound giving up 11 earned runs in just over five innings, don't expect him to all of a sudden shut down any team. At the plate statistically, Baltimore remains one of the best hitting teams in all of baseball ranking first in home runs per game, third in OPS, and seventh in runs per game. However, since the All-Star break they have not been setting the world on fire averaging around three runs per game and not scoring more than five in any of their contests.


Minnesota Twins
Kyle Gibson will start for Minnesota and comes in with a 4.67 ERA and 1.39 whip with the Twins averaging 4.39 runs per game which rank 18th in the major leagues. Like Jimenez, Gibson is better than his current numbers would indicate, but unlike Jimenez he has actually pitched very well recently. In his last 10 starts he has only had really a couple bad outings but on closer look in those starts, he has been facing some of the best hitting teams in baseball like the Red Sox, Rangers, and the Indians. In the five opportunities, he has faced those three extremely good hitting teams he allowed just an average of three runs per game. As well, he is coming off a nice start against Boston allowing one earned run off a two hits in eight innings. At the plate, Minnesota has been nothing to brag about but surprisingly their numbers are not that bad in proportion to their overall record. They rank in around the middle of the league in most categories ranking 14th in total bases, 16th in hits per game, and 18th in OPS. They are in the middle of a decent home stretch so they should come in comfortable at the plate.


Free MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins -102
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle 
July Record: 10-9

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