Cueto and Giants at Even Odds Home vs. Dodgers? We're Buying In

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, April 26, 2017 1:01 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 26, 2017 1:01 PM UTC

Johnny Cueto is slated to go off an underdog at AT&T Park for just the second time in his Giants career when he squares off against Alex Wood and the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday (10:15 p.m. ET).

Los Angeles Dodgers (10-11)

Oddsmakers offered an over/under of 94.5 wins for the Dodgers prior to the season, the second-highest figure behind the Cubs (96.5). Nearly every projection model targeted 90-plus wins. The season is still young, but fans are feeling a little uneasy at the lackluster 10-11 start. L.A. has won back-to-back games once since its opening four-game series over the lowly Padres, and that was on the back of Clayton Kershaw. Take the superstar southpaw out of the equation, and the Dodgers are 6-10 on the season.

Kershaw shut down the Giants 2-1 on Tuesday night, and now it’s Alex Wood’s turn to pitch for that elusive two-game streak. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA through four appearances (two starts) this season. Wood has worked in six games against the Giants throughout his five years of MLB service, including two starts. He’s 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA overall. The current San Francisco roster is hitting .284 as a group with a .820 OPS all-time.

Wood has slipped in and out of the Dodgers rotation throughout his career. The gangly southpaw has had trouble leading the team to victory. L.A. is 8-16 SU when he commands the hill, the staff allowing 5.7 runs per game. The numbers are even uglier away from Dodger Stadium. On the road, the team is 3-12 SU gifting 7.2 runs per contest.


San Francisco Giants (7-14)

The Giants matched their worst record in franchise history through 19 games over the weekend with a 6-13 start. “Right now, there’s nothing clicking, let’s be honest,” manager Bruce Bochy lamented to reporters on Sunday. Stats-wise, the team is average to below average in key pitching and batting metrics. But the numbers are not far off. San Fran is just not finding ways to win. Seven of its 14 losses have been by one run. Bochy’s men were tied or leading in each.

Ace Johnny Cueto (ace with Madison Bumgarner hurt) hopes to turn the team’s fortunes around Wednesday night. He’s accounted for nearly half of the Giants’ wins this season, going 3-1 SU with a 5.25 ERA through four starts. The right-hander went 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA in five outings against L.A. last season. The current Dodgers’ roster is 40-for-61 with 40 strikeouts and 10 extra base hits (four home runs) against him.

Cueto and the Giants have rolled over the NL West. The team is 16-6 SU, returning nearly 23 percent profit at -145 odds on average. The staff allows 2.73 runs per game, dipping to 2.5 in 10 contests at AT&T Park. 


Final Analysis

The Giants have issues. Still, when a No. 1 starter (Cueto) squares off against a career long-reliever at near even-money, it’s crazy not to lean the ace. Giants +105 is the pick on principle alone.  

MLB Free Pick: Giants +105Best Line Offered: Heritage

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