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Cubs vs. Padres Free MLB Picks and Odds Analysis

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Cubs vs. Padres Free MLB Picks and Odds Analysis
Adbert Alzolay #73 of the Chicago Cubs throws a pitch. Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images/AFP

The San Diego Padres look to avenge last week’s sweep at the hands of the Chicago Cubs when the two teams meet again in San Diego. The Padres have lost two straight, while the Cubs avoided getting swept by the Giants with a Sunday win. Let’s break this matchup down and see where value is for our sports betting.

Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres

Monday, June 07, 2021 – 10:10 PM EDT at Petco Park

The San Diego Padres are looking for a little revenge after getting swept at Wrigley Field by the Chicago Cubs last week.

Chicago beat the Padres 7-2 and 6-1, with the blowouts sandwiched around a 4-3 win. The rematch will take place in San Diego in a three-game set that starts Monday, and neither team carries much momentum into the games. San Diego settled for a split of a four-game weekend series against the Mets, a letdown for the Friars to see on the MLB scores after winning the first two.

The Cubs, meanwhile, avoided a weekend sweep by the Giants, winning on Sunday after losing three straight in San Francisco and giving up 19 runs in the process. Chicago is tied with Milwaukee for the lead in the National League Central despite being the only team in the division with a positive run differential. The Padres are two games out in the West despite having a run differential twice as large as the Cubs.

Lost Weekend

The Cubs are 1-3 since finishing their sweep of the Padres, and the series in San Francisco didn’t have much go right. In the process of losing 8-5 on Friday night, Cubs teammates Anthony Rizzo and Willson Contreras had a bit of a shouting match in the dugout.

Both players and manager David Ross brushed off the blow-up, writing it off as competitive natures clashing during a long season.

“It ends there. We just move on,” Rizzo said. “With our relationships here, it’s just so easy to talk to each other like we’re brothers.”

Sunday’s bad news was potentially much worse. After his seventh inning at bat, Javy Baez appeared to hurt his hand and was pulled from the game. The team said it was right thumb soreness after the game, and he’ll be day-to-day. The shortstop has 14 home runs and nine steals this season, so his absence will be felt if he can’t go for the start of the Padres series.

The Cubs will start righthander Adbert Alzolay, who beat the Padres last week to move to 4-4, 3.68 on the year. He struck out seven and allowed one run in five innings against San Diego and has a 1.53 ERA in his last three starts.

Billy McKinney #60 of the New York Mets steals second base as Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres leaps over. Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP

Walking Wounded

The Padres were shut down in the final two games of the Mets series, getting shut out by Jacob DeGrom on Saturday and scoring just two against Marcus Stroman on Sunday. That extended San Diego’s streak to seven straight games scoring fewer than five runs. The Padres have scored 18 over that span, or just over two and a half a night, which goes a long way toward explaining why they’ve lost five of those seven games. The fact that they’ve given up 37 (just over five a night) over that span explains the rest of it.

The Padres were 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position and are 5-for-44 in the last six. The back to back losses to the Mets snapped a 12-game home win streak for the Padres, and it’s the first time they’ve lost two in a row in San Diego since April 20 and 21.

San Diego will look to get back on track with lefty Ryan Weathers on the mound. He’s 2-2 this year with a 2.06 ERA. He lost to the Cubs last time out, giving up four runs in five innings, the worst outing of the year for the rookie. He allowed seven hits and two home runs, the only time this season he’s given up more than two runs.

Weathers has performed well when facing a team for the second time. He’s done that three times this year and is 1-0 with just two hits allowed in 9.2 shutout innings while striking out nine. Keep that in mind for your MLB Picks.

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The Pick

The Padres’ rough patch has dropped the price on their money line at top online sportsbooks, which had been getting very steep. Even though they’re starting a rookie, the team is due for a breakthrough offensively to help give him support. With Baez out or ailing for the Cubs, look for the Padres to get a win.

MLB Pick: Padres Moneyline (-123) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Padres ML(-123)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.