Cubs vs. Diamondbacks MLB Picks: Back Arrieta To Dominate Arizona

Jake Walker

Saturday, April 9, 2016 8:37 PM GMT

The Chicago Cubs visit the Arizona Diamondbacks in the finale of their four-game series. The Cubs are at -167 on the MLB odds board while the Diamondbacks are at +157. The total has been set at 8.

Game Information
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
4:10 PM ET, April 10
Chase Field
Coverage: WGN, FS-A
Forecast for Game Time:
67° F/ 19° C
Chance of a Thunderstorm

 

Chicago Cubs
Superior pitching carried the Cubs most of last season, but now, their hitting is starting to be almost as effective. Right now, the Cubs lead the National League with 7.75 runs per game and are 10th with a .271 batting average. If their offense remains productive, this team will be extremely tough to beat. The Cubs did lose a key part of their offense on Friday because Kyle Schwarber was diagnosed with full tears to the ACL and LCL in his left knee. Schwarber, who hit 16 home runs in just 69 games last year, will be out for the rest of the season. However, this team has a lot of depth and they will find a way to replace his production. Pitching wise, the Cubs are eighth in strikeouts, third with a 2.52 ERA and first with an 0.81 WHIP.   

 

Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are expected to contend for the NL West title this season, but the only way they can do that is if their starting pitchers are as dominant as expected. The addition of Zack Greinke gave them a true ace but he struggled in his first game, allowing seven earned runs on nine hits in just four innings of a 10-5 loss against the Rockies. Arizona is currently 13th in the National League with a 7.00 ERA and 25th in WHIP at 1.56. The Arizona offense has been efficient, as they rank fourth with 28 runs scored and third with a .288 batting average.    

Click & Compare All Props On Offer & World Series Odds

Pitching Matchup
Jake Arrieta (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Shelby Miller (0-0, 9.00 ERA)
The Cubs will give the ball to their best pitcher, Jake Arrieta. The reigning National League Cy Young winner is coming off an impressive start, allowing just two hits in seven innings of a 9-0 win against the Angels. Arrieta went 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA last season, including 13-1 with a 1.60 ERA away from Wrigley Field and he is 1-1 with a 2.63 ERA in three career starts against the Diamondbacks.

Shelby Miller will take the hill for the Diamondbacks. Miller went 6-17 with a 3.02 ERA in 33 starts for the Braves last season. His ERA was solid, the problem was that he didn't get any run support from his former teammates. This season he got enough support in his first start with the Diamondbacks (11 runs), but he struggled, giving up six earned runs in six innings against the Rockies and got a no-decision. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 2.83 ERA in seven games (six starts) against the Cubs.

Betting Trends
The Cubs are 3-1 in road games, 2-0 against right-handed starters and 22-8 in Jake Arrieta's last 30 road starts. The Diamondbacks are 0-2 when the total is between 8 and 8.5, 2-3 in home games and 23-56 in their last 79 games against a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. 

 

Final Analysis
The Cubs are favored on the MLB odds board at -167 while the Diamondbacks are at +157. The Cubs won the series opener 14-6 and the Diamondbacks evened the series with a 3-2 win last night. The third game is being played at the time of this writing. I can't go against Arrieta, who has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball for a while. What surprises me is that he has been tougher to beat away from Wrigley Field. Miller hasn't pitched well in a while, the Chicago offense has been on fire, even without Schwarber and Arrieta has been outstanding, so I have to back the Cubs -167 with my MLB picks

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2993831, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,92,238,169,349], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
MLB Pick: Cubs -167
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline