Cubs vs. Giants MLB Picks: Pitching Matchup Offering Value

The San Francisco Giants should continue building momentum with a series win at home over the Chicago Cubs. Let's examine the matchup in our Giants-Cubs picks.

The Giants have already guaranteed themselves a series split with the Cubs after winning two of the first three in San Francisco. Chicago came in on a six-game winning streak, and San Francisco was on a seven-game losing streak.

Now an intriguing young pitcher and an established veteran square off on Sunday night.

Here are my MLB Cubs-Giants picks and predictions for Sunday’s game (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick is confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Cubs vs. Giants Game Info

Date: Sunday, July 31, 7:10 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: Oracle Park, San Francisco, Calif.Weather: 62 degrees, 11-mph wind blowing out

Cubs vs. Giants Odds Analysis

There’s been little line movement when it comes to the sides. Chicago was initially being offered at around +160, and that price is still widely available. However, some books are being more generous to the Giants, with FanDuel and DraftKings hanging -180 on San Francisco.

DraftKings is reporting 84% of the bets are on the Giants at -180, but just 67% of the handle is on the home moneyline. The splits are interesting on the total too, with 78% of the handle but just 59% of the tickets on the Over at 7.5. There’s been marginal movement toward the Over.

Cubs vs. Giants Projected Pitchers

Adrian Sampson (0-1, 3.20 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodon (8-6, 3.18 ERA)

Sampson has been sturdy over his last four starts, allowing no more than three runs in any of those outings. Though strikeouts and walks have been issues, Sampson has given up just two homers in those starts while pitching well to contact.

Rodon is easily one of the National League's best pitchers, and he could be making his final start for the San Francisco Giants with the trade deadline looming. He's struck out seven-plus batters in every during July.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1551727836016304129

Cubs vs. Giants Picks

Spread: Giants -1.5 (+115 via BetMGM) ?????Total: Under 7.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ?????Prop bet: Sampson over 3.5 strikeouts (-108 via FanDuel) ????

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Cubs vs. Giants Spread Pick

Giants -1.5 (+115)

The Chicago Cubs are simply the inferior team. The Cubs became hot against the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates, but that says more about the state of Philly and Pittsburgh than it does about Chicago.

The Cubs are 18th in wRC+ against lefties, and over the past week they rank 18th in that category. Though they aren't striking out much, the Cubs are a mess in the power department with a .164 ISO.

Rodon is a master at pitching to contact, with a .210 expected batting average and a low 5.3% barrel rate this season. And while he’s struck out plenty of batters, the veteran hasn’t needed punchouts to record outs.

The Cubs will experience a nightmare outing against the lefty because of their inability to make meaningful contact.

https://twitter.com/SFGiants/status/1553571522337419264

Cubs vs. Giants O/U Pick

Under 7.5 (-114)

Take the Under in a game featuring two struggling offenses. The Cubs aren't producing runs, and the Giants rank 27th in wRC+ over the past week with a high 26.2% strikeout rate.

The Giants will prevail against Sampson, who carries a somewhat high 3.81 xERA into this one. But I’m cautiously optimistic he can hold the Giants to three or so runs given his low 33.1% hard-hit rate. The Under is then likely to cash because Rodon is well-positioned for a shutout.

I’m slightly concerned about Sampson’s fly-ball rate and the wind blowing out, but not nearly enough to take the Over. It would take an offensive explosion from the Giants to get there, and we just haven’t been seeing that lately.

Cubs vs. Giants Prop Bet

Sampson Over 3.5 strikeouts (-108)

Sampson isn’t exactly a big-time swing-and-miss pitcher, but he should be able to get over this low total given the number of potential strikeout victims in San Francisco's order.

This Over has hit in four of his seven outings that lasted more than an inning, so there’s some precedent here too.

Where to Bet on Cubs-Giants Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Cubs-Giants picks from 7/31/2022 at 3:28 p.m. ET.