Corbin, Diamondbacks to Take Care of Business vs. Brewers

Jordan Sharp

Monday, May 14, 2018 1:46 PM UTC

Monday, May. 14, 2018 1:46 PM UTC

Patrick Corbin has been superb for Arizona, and tonight they host a Milwaukee team that sends  struggling right-hander Junior Guerra to the mound. It could be a long night for the visitors.

MLB Monday: Brewers vs. DiamondbacksFree MLB Pick: Diamondbacks -146Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Guerra’s Recent Struggles

Milwaukee's Junior Guerra opened the year red-hot. He didn’t allow more than one earned run during his first four starts, going at least 5 innings and striking out at least four in each game.

However, since then things have been a bit of a struggle for the right-hander. Over his last two starts, Guerra has allowed nine earned runs. After not allowing a home run over his first four starts, he has given up three long balls over his last two trips to the mound.

While both those starts coming at home is a bit surprising, things likely won’t get much better in the dry desert air tonight in Phoenix. Guerra has a career 4.62 road ERA, compared to 2.83 ERA at home. Combine that with the Brewers’ struggles against left-handed pitching, and you have some nice moneyline value tonight with the D-backs.

Corbin’s Southpaw Dominance

Patrick Corbin has been one of the league’s best pitchers this season. The Diamondbacks’ southpaw has a 4-0 record and a 2.12 ERA, and he has yet to allow more than 2 earned runs in his home starts this season.

Combine that with the way the Brewers have hit left-handed pitching this season, and the numbers on the MLB odds board certainly favor the home team. Milwaukee is hitting only 71-for-340 (.209) against lefties this season. The Brewers have a strikeout rate of more than 20% against left-handers, and a wOBA of just .280, which ranks 29th in the majors.

If Corbin has his best stuff tonight, not only will the D-backs win this game, they might win it running away if their bats wake up.

The Sharp Pick

The only problem I run into with this play is the D-backs’ losing streak. Arizona has lost five straight games (they were swept in a four games series over the weekend versus the Nationals) and their offense has taken a back seat lately.

The D-backs scored only 10 runs over their last five losses. While their pitching has done its job for the most part, the bats have gone cold.

However, a matchup against Guerra might be all it takes for the D-backs to get back on track offensively. With their recent slump so pronounced, the oddsmakers have Arizona at only -147 tonight on the moneyline. If they were playing better like they were earlier in the season, those odds would surely be into the -175 or -180 range with Corbin on the hill.

So, if you’re like me and you are betting on the Arizona offense to start turning things around, you’ll tail me with this play in your MLB picks. The Brewers being so bad against lefties might make this play by itself. Corbin isn’t going to give up a ton of runs, so as long as we can get 3 to 4 runs to cross the plate for the D-backs, I’m expecting a win.

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