Continue to Fade Sabathia Until Further Notice: Latos & Marlins the Pick Over Yankees

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, June 18, 2015 1:40 PM GMT

The Marlins are 29-38 for the season which includes runs of 3-11 12-3 5-15 and their current run of 9-6 & Yankees are an equal streaky team. Here are the betting predictions for this game.

Miami Marlins (Latos) vs. New York Yankees (Sabathia) -145 7:05 EST.
The Miami Marlins and New York Yankees conclude their 4 game inter-league  set with a 7:05 Est. start at Yankees Stadium. Miami captured the first 2 games by scores of 2-1 and 12-2 before dropping a 2-1 decision to the Yankees last night on this field. These have been 2 of the streakiest teams of MLB. The Marlins are 29-38 for the season which includes runs of 3-11 12-3 5-15 and their current run of 9-6. The Yankees are an equal streaky team. Their 35-30 record is result of streaks of 4-6 17-5 1-10 11-3 and a current run of 2-5 in which they have been outscored 43-21. A pair of veterans in Latos and Sebathia face off tonight. We have been fading Sebathia all season as an overpriced favorite and look to make money with that concept tonight.

Sabathia is in the late stages of his career. His numbers began to fade in 2013. Last season, due to injury, his season was cut short in early May. His bounce back season has never materialized. For the YTD New York has won just 5 of 13 Sabathia starts. For the season he has a 5.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Those numbers are even worse from this mound where New York has won only 1 of 4 starts by the veteran left hander in which he has authored a 1.63 HOME WHIP. We know that from my resent article “Splitting the Whip part 2” that those are pure play against numbers.  

The Miami Marlins are looking to keep a float until a trio of their injured starters, Fernandez, Cosart and Alvarez return. In the mean time they are relying on the veteran slants of Latos to hold the fort. After a dismal start Latos had clawed his way back to a 5.44 ERA. But It is important to note his return to form start after a stint on the DL for an inflamed knee since May 21st.  In his June 13th start vs Colorado, a 4-1 Miami victory, Latos worked 7 IP allowing just 1 run on 4 hits with an 11/2 KBB. Let’s call it a ”buy sign”. 

Despite last night’s New York Yankees victory these teams are headed opposite directions.  At an underdog price I am eager to continue to fade Sabathia in the roll of overpriced favorite.

MLB Pick: Marlins at 5Dimes