Confidently Pick 'Over' as Runs Will Come Easy When Tigers-Rays Collide

Charles Stark

Monday, July 27, 2015 11:09 AM GMT

With both of these teams still in the race for the wildcard I'm going to back over the total when the Detroit Tigers visit the Tampa Bay Rays. Look for more runs than expected and a pretty high-scoring affair.

Odds
I was a bit surprised to see MLB odds makers come out with this line at 7.5. The good thing about the line though is that there is a little bit of plus money on it which is where I like to make my plays. At most sports books you can get the over 7.5 on that plus money line or at a couple places over 7 with a little bit of juice. The best odds I have found are at Pinnacle sports taking the over 7.5 at +111.

 

Pitchers
Anibal Sanchez gets the start for the Tigers and comes in with a 4.59 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, he also comes in on quite a winning streak with the Tigers winning the last eight games he has started. For backing the over today Sanchez should provide some relief to a struggling Tampa Bay offense as he has given up 17 earned runs in his last five starts. He has been pretty decent keeping the hit totals down, but teams are finding ways to score off him consistently and expect the Rays to do the same. For Tampa Bay Nathan Karns will take the hill with a 3.47 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He was solid in his last start against Philadelphia allowing zero earned runs over five innings, prior to that though he allowed seven earned runs in six innings against the Kansas City Royals. That has been the theme with him this year pitching well one day and then getting knocked around the next. Facing one of the top offenses in the major leagues in the Tigers expect him to have a tough outing today, and for the Tigers to push across enough runs to get this over this total.

This handicapper also previews tonight's game between Royals vs. Indians

Offenses
Detroit has been one of the top offenses in the major leagues this year. They rank third in the major leagues in runs scored per game, second in OPS, and first in batting average. On the flipside Tampa Bay has been one of the worst offenses in the major leagues and are coming off a series against the Orioles in which they only scored six runs in three games. They rank 28th in runs scored per game, 26th in OPS, and 27th in batting average. Those stats don't build a lot of confidence in backing the over today, but taken the fact that Sanchez has been less than stellar this season and Tampa Bay is overdue to have a nice day at the plate.

The line makes sense from around 7 to 7.5. At the end of the day though I like the matchup with these offenses against these particular pitchers and I'm looking for the Tigers and the Rays to both have a lot of quality at-bats and score more than enough runs to get is over this total, back the over with confidence.

MLB Pick: Over