Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners Odds & Free Picks

Jason Lake

Wednesday, May 31, 2017 12:41 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 31, 2017 12:41 PM UTC

The Colorado Rockies have been the best baseball pick of this year’s crop – so far. Can Antonio Senzatela keep it going Wednesday night against the Seattle Mariners?

The Colorado Rockies? Sure, why not. They were +4000 outsiders to win the 2017 World Series heading into the new season; now the Rockies are +1400 after jumping out to an early lead in the National League West. Colorado did make some big moves this offseason to improve their lineup, moves that not too many people paid any attention – which is why the small-market Rockies are the most profitable MLB pick of the early season.

In theory, the Seattle Mariners (+3300 open, +6600 current) should have been in the same boat. But their 2017 campaign has been marred by injuries, leaving them capsized in a sea of red ink at the bottom of the American League West. Maybe the return of their best starting pitcher will get Seattle out of the muck. James Paxton (1.51 FIP) is expected to twirl Wednesday night against rookie Antonio Senzatela (4.37 FIP) and the visiting Rockies; first pitch is at 10:10 p.m. Eastern, and the Mariners have opened as –138 favorites on the MLB odds board.

Rookie Green

Wait... who’s this Antonio Senzatela person? Colorado has won eight of his 10 starts for 6.73 units in earnings, so we’d better get to know Senzatela. He’s the No. 4 pitcher in the Rockies rotation, an undrafted 22-year-old righty from Venezuela who was considered a deep prospect at best, and missed most of 2016 with shoulder issues. Senzetala has a very good 94-mph fastball, a pretty good slider, and that’s about it. He’s supposed to be a middle reliever.

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Antonio Senzatela's 3.19 ERA is the lowest by a Rockies starter through 10 career starts in franchise history

— Purple Dinosaur Pod. (@purpledinocast) May 27, 2017

So why is Senzetala outperforming expectations? Getting 7.40 runs per game in support helps, but the rookie is also benefitting from a .249 BABIP. Even if the Rockies keep supplying the runs, the regression monsters should catch up to Senzetala at some point and turn some of those outs into hits.


Cascadia FTW

Paxton, the pride of Ladner, British Columbia, is making his first start since May 2 because of a strained forearm. The 6-foot-4 southpaw allowed exactly zero earned runs in four of his six starts, and six runs in total, but the M’s only managed to win three of those games for a loss of 0.77 units. However, they just got Robinson Cano (.861 OPS) back in the lineup last week, so maybe things will turn out all right in the Emerald City.

FiveThirtyEight has Seattle winning Wednesday’s game 57 percent of the time, the equivalent of –133 on the SBR Betting Odds Converter. It’s a tight line, but we’ll go along with the M’s as a “buy low” pick and sell high on the Rockies while we’re at it.


Free MLB Pick: Mariners -138Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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