Colorado Rockies are the Live Longshot MLB Pick vs. Angels

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, May 12, 2015 4:15 PM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Tuesday.

 



A huge underdog may have a better chance than the humongous odds imply Tuesday night when right-hander Kyle Kendrick and those Colorado Rockies (11-17, 7-8 away) pay a visit to southpaw C.J. Wilson and the Los Angeles Angels (15-17, 8-9 home) in the first game of a brief two-game interleague series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 10:05 ET in a game available on ROOT.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Colorado as a huge underdog for this contest at current odds of +183.


Nine-Game Losing Streak
This huge line is understandable when you consider that the Rockies come in on a nine-game losing streak following a loss to Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday in a game that was postponed from Saturday. That leaves the Rockies in last place in the National League West, 8½ games behind the first place Dodgers at this still early stage of the season. However, have the Angels done enough to be laying so much chalk here?

The Angels are in second place in the American League West, five games behind the upstart Houston Astros, thanks to being the winning MLB picks in four of their last six games. But, despite that streak and their standing, the Angels remain two games below .500 at 15-17, which suddenly does not exude much confidence when laying large MLB odds such as these.


Fine Colorado Debut and Then…
Kendrick had spent his entire Major League career with the Philadelphia Phillies before this year, and he actually had an excellent Colorado debut tossing seven scoreless innings vs. the Brewers in Milwaukee. Unfortunately Kendrick has not had a Quality Start since his initial 2015 outing, in fact allowing at least four earned runs in five straight starts since then leading to his currently obscene 8.73 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and his .328 batting average allowed!

Kendrick has never been this bad though and much of those ugly numbers have to do with trying to adjust to pitching in the altitude of Colorado, an area where he has failed miserably so far much like many other Rockies’ pitchers before him. To give you an idea just home much Coors Field has affected him, Kendrick has the worst FIP of any qualifying starting pitcher in baseball at an atrocious 7.24, but his xFIP, which is park-adjusted, is considerably lower at 4.86.

Fortunately Kendrick is pitching in a much more friendly pitchers’ park tonight in Anaheim, which is even more of a pitchers’ park with the heavy night air, and he is facing a lineup mostly unfamiliar with him as this his will be his first ever appearance vs. the Angels.

He also benefits from facing a struggling Los Angeles lineup that is batting just .219 vs. right-handed pitchers this season while averaging only 3.68 runs per nine innings against them, and those figures drop to a dreadful .205 and 2.76 runs per game vs. right-handers over the last 10 games.


Wilson Unlucky to Have One Win
Now, Wilson is also winless since his first start of the season for the Angels, but unlike Kendrick, C.J. has continued to pitch well, sitting at 1-2 but with a spiffy 2.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and a .205 batting average allowed. Most recently he limited the Seattle Mariners to two runs on seven hits in seven innings but received no decision in a 4-3 Angel win last Wednesday.

Wilson has obviously been plagued by a lack of run support with Los Angeles only averaging 2.33 runs per game for him. However, the problem there is that the Halos are not averaging much more that that vs. right-handers over the last 10 games as they have been winning some pitching duels during the recent mini-surge, meaning that Wilson may not get much run support yet again tonight.

Also, something to keep in mind whenever Wilson takes the mound is that he is pitching with an elbow that will probably eventually require surgery. He had fluid drained from his left pitching elbow earlier this season but remained in the rotation, instead discontinuing the long tossing he used to normally do the days after he pitches. That is just one added variable that should make anyone leery of backing Wilson at a prohibitive price.


Money-Burning Halos
Finally, the Angels are a bit overrated and nothing evidences that more than the fact that they are a money-burning 2-7 the last nine times they have been home favorites in the -151 to -200 range. Some other negative trends against Los Angeles have the Angels at 1-7 in their last eight games following an off day and 1-4 in their last five interleague games vs. teams with losing records.

Add this all up and the Rockies seem to offer some value, so take Colorado at a huge underdog price visiting the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim on Tuesday.

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MLB Pick: Rockies +183