Clear Betting Edge Found in Thurday's Starting Pitchers

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, September 25, 2014 12:45 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 25, 2014 12:45 PM UTC

Our MLB betting odds guru has determined that two of the starting pitchers in A’s/Rangers and Royals/White Sox have the clear betting edge today.

Athletics vs. Rangers 8:05 PM ET
The A’s Jason Hammel has endured tough times since coming to Oakland from the Cubs at the trade deadline. He’s gone an abysmal 2-9 against the money and with the A’s and has a lofty 4.93 ERA in those outings. However, lately he’s pitched drastically better, and has just been victimized by a lack of run support. Each of his last 4-starts has gone under the total, and he posted a stellar 2.36 ERA and an excellent 0.71 WHIP in those outings. He’s also seen his last 4-starts at home all go under the total, and had a dominating 1.35 ERA during the process of doing so.

The Texas starter Colby Lewis has really struggled at home this season, going 4-9 against the money, and posting a large 6.29 ERA. He’s seen his last 3-starts all go over the total and had a lofty 4.74 ERA in those outings. Lewis has shown a propensity to give up home runs at all too frequent pace in his last 7-starts. In those 7-starts, he allowed a whopping 12 home runs in 47.0 innings, and that equates to 1 per 3.9 innings pitched.


Advantage: The A’s are 13th in all of baseball with a 144 home runs hit on the season. The vulnerability of Lewis in that area should be a genuine concern for the Rangers this evening. Hammel seems to be settling into a nice groove of late, and should finally get some run support tonight. The edge to apply to this free pick goes to Hammel of the A’s over Lewis of the Rangers.

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Royals vs. White Sox 8:10 PM ET
James Shields of the Royals has been terrific this season on the road, going 14-4 against the money, with a very good 2.81 ERA, and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s seen none of his previous 5-starts go over the total while displaying superb form, posting an excellent 1.75 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 10:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Shields had gone 3-1 against the money versus the White Sox in 2014 with a 2.67 ERA.

The White Sox starter Jose Quintana enters tonight in solid form over his last 3-starts, posting a shining 2.04 ERA, a better than 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and none of those 4-games went over the total. Home runs against Quintana have come few and far between this season. The White Sox right-hander allowed just 9 homers in 193.0 innings in 2014, and that includes just 1 long ball in 85 2/3 innings at home. The bad news for Quintana, he’s gone 0-3 against the money versus the Royals this season with an unimpressive 4.43 ERA, and the status as the underdog on MLB odds reflects this.


Advantage: James Shields has proven on several occasions through his career that he can be counted on in big games. This one certainly qualifies as such for the Royals, and for that reason, I’m giving the wagering edge to Shields of the Royals over Quintana of the White Sox & recommend you apply this insight at a sportsbook like Bodog.

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