Chalky Dodgers to Get Humbled in Arizona: Bet Wilson to Get the W

Charles Stark

Monday, June 29, 2015 11:06 AM GMT

There is a pretty good value today on the Arizona Diamondbacks vs Dodgers. The Dodgers are being favored, but I'm going to back the Diamondbacks money line with my M LB picks.

Odds
Right now MLB odds makers have come out making the Dodgers a favorite of about -130 which makes the Diamondbacks about a +120 underdog. The best odds I have seen right now is at 5Dimes sportsbook where you can get the Diamondbacks at +122. I think this line will move a bit towards the Diamondbacks because this is good value on a very good hitting team in the Diamondbacks against an overrated pitcher.

 

Pitching matchup
Mike Bolsinger takes the mound for the Dodgers with a 2.95 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Pretty solid numbers with only 10 games pitched so far this season. In his first five games this year he allowed only four earned runs which is very impressive. But in his last five games in the month of June he has allowed 15 earned runs in 26 innings pitched for a 5.06 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Also, on the road he has an ERA of 3.81 and batters are hitting .291 against him. On top of these stats, he has a career ERA of over 4.00.  For the Diamondbacks Allen Webster takes the hill and comes in with a 6.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His career numbers are not much better with a 6.28 ERA, but he isn't nearly as bad as those numbers indicate. He is only 25 years old and it is still early in his major league career as he only has 21 starts under his belt, and in those starts he only had four really bad outings which would balloon any major league pitcher's ERA. In his eight seasons in the minor leagues he had a 3.57 ERA and 1.30 WHIP so some pretty respectable numbers there.

 

Hitting
Both the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers are two of the better hitting teams in major league baseball. There isn't a big disparity in their numbers overall. Arizona ranks eighth in runs scored per game and the Dodgers 13th. In on base plus slugging percentage the Dodgers rank second in the league with Arizona ranked 15th. In hits per game the Diamondbacks rank fifth and the Dodgers rank 21st. These two teams are both solid at the plate and are ahead of each other in different categories. Still, to me the value goes with the Diamondbacks today especially since they have struggled just a little bit recently at the plate and are due to break out some runs. Also, this will be their second crack at Bolsinger, and this will be the third time this year that he has faced the same team. In the second game of those first two appearances, once against the Giants and once against the Padres, he was not as sharp and gave up more earned runs that second time than the first time he faced them. Look for the Diamondbacks to have similar success today.

This is simply just good value on the Diamondbacks today. Bolsinger has not been as sharp recently as he was earlier in the year and is simply overvalued. Look for Webster also to have a surprisingly good outing today, back the Diamondbacks.

MLB Picks: Diamondbacks +140 at 5Dimes