Chalk's the Way to Go with Wednesday's Reds-Nats MLB Picks

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, July 8, 2015 3:51 PM GMT

Wednesday, Jul. 8, 2015 3:51 PM GMT

Are you willing to bet on Cincinnati being able to complete an improbable three game road sweep against the NL East division leading Nationals? We have that answer and much more.

Nationals Look to Avoid Sweep by Reds
The Washington Nationals will look to avoid being swept at home when they take on Cincinnati tonight at 7:05 PM ET. As a matter of fact, Cincinnati has won all five games played between these clubs this season. Wednesday will be the finale of a three game series with the Reds winning 3-2 on Monday and 5-0 yesterday.

 

Wednesday's Starting Pitchers
The Reds Michael Lorenzen will get the start on Wednesday. Lorenzen has posted a very good 3.32 ERA this season, but that may be a bit deceiving with all things being considered. He’s allowed 12 home runs and walked 33 in just 62 1/3 inning pitched during those starts. My personal feeling based on past experience, leads me to believe that Lorenzen has been very fortunate and lucky to have an ERA this low, based on his 2015 performance line. What’s even more of a danger sign is his sizable 1.63 WHIP in five road starts.

The Nationals turn to Gio Gonzalez on the mound today. The Nationals southpaw hurler has gone a stellar 6-1 in his home team starts this year with an outstanding 2.44 ERA. Gonzalez has also compiled an excellent 1.83 ERA and 0.86 in six career starts versus Cincinnati.  

 

Compelling Team Trends
The Reds have gone a dismal 14-39 since 2013 as a money line road underdog of +125 to +175 like they are in today's MLB odds. The Nationals are an extremely profitable 13-1 at home since 2014 after losing two or more games in a row.

 

Final Analysis
I very seldom advise to lay this type of juice on a money line favorite of this magnitude. However, there’s an exception to every rule, and this indeed is one of those cases. The best price I’ve been able to find pertaining to this type of wager on Washington came at BetOnline.com. They currently have Washington at -149 on the money line. My money management advice for this wager is to not bet $149.00 to win $100.00, and risk just $100.00 to win $67.11. That’s the increment I will be using when making one of my MLB picks on Wednesday.

MLB Picks: Play on Washington -149 on the money line 

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