Chalk's the Way to Go with Royals-Tigers MLB Picks

Steven Suarez

Sunday, September 20, 2015 12:51 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 20, 2015 12:51 PM UTC

Will the Tigers be able to pull off the three-game sweep of the Royals this afternoon? Find out inside where we're going with our MLB picks.

Odds Overview
Though the Tigers are on a bit of a roll, they're not being given a high probability of winning today's series finale by oddsmakers. At the moment, we see Detroit listed in the +125 to +130 range to win, meaning the Royals will come in as -140 to -145 favorites on the MLB odds board.

We know we can't really on Alfredo Simon, and while Kris Medlen has shown some good things, we can't say we disagree with a high posted total of 8.5 runs for Sunday. 


Detroit Tigers (Simon)
Amazingly enough, the Tigers have won four straight games, and all four came by a single run. The last three have all been decided in extra innings no less, with Detroit now at 69-78 overall this season. This team's playoff chances have long been extinguished, with the Tigers now simply playing for pride and preparing for 2016.

This has been a great series so far for Detroit, though, as they head into the finale today. It'll be Alfredo Simon's turn in the rotation, and he's gone 13-9 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.43 WHIP through 28 starts in 2015. He's settled down a little bit over his last three starts, lowering his ERA down from 5.09, but it's still been a forgettable season overall for the right-hander.

The Royals don't have the most intimidating of offenses, but they know how to make pitchers work for each and every out, so we don't like this matchup for Simon at all.


Kansas City Royals (Medlen)
It hasn't been a great week for Kansas City, but because they have played so well throughout the season, they've put themselves in a position where they can afford a few losses here and there down the stretch. The Royals are locked into the playoffs, so they're probably not sweating the fact they've lost each of these first two games in Detroit.

That being said, Kris Medlen will try to turn the tide for the Royals this afternoon. He's 4-1 with a 3.92 ERA and 30:11 K:BB ratio over 43 and 2/3 innings of work for the team so far this season. He's looked pretty sharp in his last two starts, going 12 and 1/3 innings and allowing only eight hits and two earned runs.

Obviously, a matchup with Detroit is never easy, but this is probably one of the better times to catch the Tigers, since they don't have much to play for and have been out of the running for the postseason for a while now. Medlen should be able to at least limit the damage and put Kansas City in a good position to win.


MLB Pick
The Royals have been disappointing in this series so far, but we think they'll avoid the sweep tonight.

For one, we have way more faith in Medlen than we do Simon. The former has really settled down nicely over his last two starts, while Simon has been mostly terrible throughout the 2015 season; his ERA is almost over the 5.00 level and he's allowed 21 home runs on the season. The Royals should be able to have success at the plate this afternoon.   

We also can't forget about the huge gap in bullpen performance here. Whereas Detroit has arguably the worst bullpen staff in the majors, Kansas City has become known for its excellent bullpen, and that shouldn't go unnoticed either. Once Simon hits the showers, the Royals should be able to keep getting on-base with ease against the awful Tigers pen.

So, with our MLB picks, we don't mind taking on a little chalk by backing Kansas City on the moneyline. The Royals should be able to avoid the sweep here.

MLB Pick: Kansas City Royals -135 at 5Dimes.

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