Cashner-Niese Pitching Matchup to Make Padres vs. Mets Total Go 'Under'

Charles Stark

Wednesday, July 29, 2015 11:28 PM GMT

Wednesday, Jul. 29, 2015 11:28 PM GMT

With the Mets in the playoff hunt and the Padres having a rare breakout day at the plate yesterday, I'm going to back under the total today with these two teams finishing up their series in New York.

Odds
Oddsmakers came out with this game at 7 for the total and that seems just about right. But what we're getting is a top tiered starter for the Padres against a Mets pitcher who is looking for a good bounce back game with some good numbers this season. The best MLB odds to grab under the total for this game are at BetOnline and Sportsbetting, where you can get under this number at +100. For me that is good value with two solid pitchers on the mound.

 

Pitching Matchup
This should be a good matchup of two underrated pitchers in which we should see a lot of zeros on the board. For the Mets, Jonathan Niese gets the start and comes in with a 3.75 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, not bad numbers but oddly enough he has a record of 5-9. He has had a decent year statistically but at home his ERA jumps to 4.61 with a WHIP of 1.46. Still, with a career ERA under four and a really tough outing his last home start against the Dodgers, this a great spot for him to bounce back and pitch well. Despite that bad outing against the Dodgers, he allowed only four runs in 29 innings in his previous four starts, and he always keeps the hit totals down.

Andrew Cashner will get the start for the Padres and he is finally starting to pitch like he is capable of. His numbers are very similar to Niese in that he comes in with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, not bad numbers, but still a record of only 4-10. He has been really sharp in his last three starts but has been snake bit by some bad timing, for example, allowing four earned runs in seven innings at Pittsburgh but only off of three hits. In total he has only allowed 11 hits in his last three starts, and except for that game in Pittsburgh, he only allowed seven total earned runs over four starts. He also can keep the hit totals down.

 

At the Plate
The Mets are a better hitting team at home by far than they are on the road, but overall their numbers are not good. They rank last in the major leagues in runs scored per game and the Padres are not much better, ranked 23rd. In OPS we are looking at the two lowest ranked teams in the major leagues, with the Mets ranked 29th and the Padres ranked 30th. These are two teams that can really struggle at the plate.

This a really good matchup of two good pitchers against two poor offenses. Although the Padres broke out the bats yesterday, don't look for them to do the same today against Niese. On the other side Cashner should do enough against a subpar Mets offense to keep the run total down, so back the under with confidence.

MLB Pick: Under 7 (+100) at BetOnline

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