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HOUSTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 02: Carlos Correa #1 of the Houston Astros reacts after striking out against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning in Game Six of the World Series at Minute Maid Park on November 02, 2021 in Houston, Texas. Elsa/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by ELSA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Carlos Correa, the former Houston Astros shortstop, has been signed by the Minnesota Twins, and we examine the impact on MLB futures markets.

The Minnesota Twins traded shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the New York Yankees and used the money saved from sending third baseman Josh Donaldson to the Yankees to sign former Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa. Correa was the shortstop most New York fans wanted the Yankees to acquire during the offseason. The Twins are playing chess, not checkers here.

During his seven seasons with the Astros, Correa hit 133 home runs, drove in 489 runs, and accumulated a combined fWAR of 25.1. Correa led all shortstops in the American League with an fWAR of 5.8 last season.

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Correa had been expecting a deal north of $300 million, but it appears the market did not take shape the way he had expected. Instead, Correa has decided to sign a three-year contract worth $105.3 million that includes an opt-out clause after the first two seasons. Correa appears to have decided to leverage a season at Target Field, where he has a career 1.205 OPS, into the contract he desired this offseason.

We examine the impact of Correa's move to the Twins on the MLB futures markets (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

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MLB Futures Markets Before and After Correa Signing with Twins

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Twins Win Total: Over 75.5 (-150 via PointsBet)

Although the Twins have added Correa to their lineup, I do not believe they are intriguing enough to be purchased in the World Series or American League markets. The team is dramatically improved, but not enough to win the World Series.

Correa does bring to the Twins an extremely motivated five-win player with a strong history at Target Field. In my opinion, Correa will attempt to utilize the one year at Target Field as a springboard to a larger contract next offseason. This can be exploited by taking advantage of the Twins' low win total.

Before the signing of Correa, the Twins' 75.5-win total should have already caught your attention. Fangraphs predicted the Twins would win 81 games before the signing, while Baseball Prospectus predicted they would win 84 games. Once the signing of Correa is included in this formula, these projections will only increase.

Since the signing of Correa, DraftKings has already increased its Twins win total to 79.5. While this number is higher, one could argue that it is still too low. As for PointsBet, they are still asleep and have not adjusted the Twins win total at all. It still stands at 75.5, the same number they posted on the Twins prior to signing Correa.

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Immediately following the signing of Correa, I bought the Twins Over on the win total. Although I do not believe they will win the World Series or catch the Chicago White Sox in the division, their win total is too low. They have improved their roster several times since the lockout was lifted and have demonstrated their desire to make the playoffs this year.

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