Cards & Twins Your Ticket to Financial Freedom in Friday’s MLB Picks

Mining The Diamond

Friday, July 7, 2017 3:12 PM GMT

Mining the Diamond is a baseball column that explores the pitching matchups, historical trends, and MLB odds to deliver two top picks each and every day throughout the baseball season. Let’s review Friday’s selections and cash those tickets!

Mets (38-45, -14.5 Units) at Cardinals (41-44, -10.4 Units)
  • St. Louis is 23-17 (+1.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

  • St. Louis is 172-133 (+10.4 Units) against right-handed starters over the last three seasons.

  • St. Louis’s starter Carlos Martinez’s team record is 4-0 (+4.5 Units) when starting against the Mets with an ERA of 1.16 and a WHIP of 1.200.

  • New York is 29-35 (-14.0 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

  • New York is 19-26 (-11.0 Units) after a loss this season.

  • New York is 29-31 (-7.7 Units) in night games this season.

The Mets have dropped their last three and have been outscored by a combined 21-7 as they open the first of a three-game set with the Cardinals. They will oppose a Cardinals’ team that defeated the Marlins 4-3 last night and will send Carlos Martinez to the hill who has delivered wins in all four of his starts, and a sparkling 1.16 ERA, against the Mets throughout his career.

New York’s starter Jacob deGrom has been stellar recently for the Mets with a 3-0 mark and a 0.78 ERA over those appearances. However, the 29-year-old southpaw has an ERA of 3.55 this season and in his three career starts against the Cardinals he has a 1-2 record with a 5.82 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. If he does falter tonight, New York’s bullpen on the road owns a 6.40 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP which bodes well for St. Louis. In short, deGrom will eventually regress to the mean and based on his history against St. Louis, and Martinez’s success against New York, this one certainly favors the Redbirds. The MLB odds are right and we will back St. Louis in our MLB picks tonight.

Free MLB Pick: Cardinals -112Best Line Offered: at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140719, "sportsbooksIds":[169,93,1096,19,180], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 Orioles (40-45, -5.6 Units) at Twins (44-41, +6.3 Units)
  • Minnesota is 33-28 (+7.7 Units) against right-handed starters this season.

  • Minnesota is 28-19 (+10.6 Units) in night games this season.

  • Minnesota is 9-4 (+6.4 Units) when playing on Friday this season.

  • Baltimore is 14-29 (-13.7 Units) in road games this season.

  • Baltimore is 3-9 (-6.7 Units) after three or more consecutive losses this season.

  • Baltimore is 20-30 (-9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Tonight’s matchup is the second of a four-game series with Minnesota winning the opener last night by the score of 6-4. Baltimore has dropped their last three and five of their last six. On the flipside, the Twins have won three of their last four and will oppose Minnesota’s Kevin Gausman. Like Jacob deGrom from the Mets, Gausman has pitched well over his last three with a 2-1 record and a 1.50 ERA. However, let’s consider some numbers working against Gausman tonight.

  • Kevin Gausman’s team record is 10-25 (-15.4 Units) in road games over the last two seasons.

  • Kevin Gausman’s team record is 0-10 (-10.4 Units) when playing on Friday over the last two seasons.

  • Kevin Gausman’s team record is 5-16 (-11.1 Units) in road games in night games over the last two seasons.

  • Kevin Gausman’s team record is 4-14 (-10.3 Units) in road games after a loss over the last three seasons.

Ironically, the public will swarm the O’s tonight because of – who else – Kevin Gausman due to his recent pitching performances. But the sharps know better, especially when you factor in Gausman’s 1-3 team mark and 6.00 ERA in his three starts against Minnesota. Let’s back the home dog here and watch the Twins cash.

Free MLB Pick: Twins +115Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140959, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1275,180,123,93], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]