Cardinals vs. Giants Contrarian Betting with Wacha-Leake Matchup

Charles Stark

Friday, August 28, 2015 11:43 AM GMT

Word of a pitching duel in San Francisco is spreading amongst baseball betting circles, but this handicapper doesn't just go with the public flow. Find out how he will place his MLB picks as Cardinals face Giants.

Cardinals vs. Giants MLB Odds
Odds makers came out with a total of 6.5 for this matchup, and as mentioned considering the pitchers, it makes sense. Across the board the higher juice is on over the total but you can still get this game on the over at regular odds at Heritage Sports at -110.

Charles Also Previews Astros vs. Twins here.

St. Louis Cardinals
Michael Wacha takes the mound for the Cardinals and comes in with a 2.80 ERA, 1.12 whip, 128 strikeouts, and a stunning 15-4 record. He just faced the Giants recently in St. Louis allowing just one run off of six hits in seven innings, but I don't expect him to be that efficient today. In his last five starts he has been stellar but he does tend to give up more runs on the road than at home. So far this year he has a home ERA of 2.43, but on the road it jumps to 3.11. In his last two road starts he has been excellent allowing only one earned run combined versus the Reds and the Padres, but in his previous two road starts he allowed 10 earned against the Cubs and the White Sox.

St. Louis ranks 22nd in runs scored per game at 3.98, 19th in OPS at .710, and 15th in batting average hitting .253 as a team. Most of their offensive statistics go up slightly at home but their run total per game goes up on the road from 3.77 in St. Louis to 4.21 while traveling. Recently there have been having quite a few quality at-bats and this will be the third time this year that they have faced starting pitcher for the Giants, Mike Leake. They have had minimal success against him so for me I am anticipating third times a charm.

 

San Francisco Giants
Mike Leake gets the start for the Giants and comes in with a 3.44 ERA, 1.13 whip, 101 strikeouts, and a 9-6 record. He is arguably having his best year yet as a major leaguer and in his last 10 starts he has been fantastic except for one bad outing against Minnesota. He has really good stuff and get guys out every way imaginable from strikeouts the fly outs. In those last 10 starts though, except for the Rangers, he hasn't really faced any top tiered offenses.  The way St. Louis has been hitting the ball recently on top of the fact this is the third time they've seen him this year, I look for the Cardinals to have some quality at-bats.

The Giants rank 12th in runs scored per game at 4.29, ninth in OPS at .732, and third in team batting average hitting .268. Their numbers don't fluctuate a lot whether they are home and away as they hit .268 at home and .268 on the road. They just faced Wacha a couple weeks ago in St. Louis, as mentioned, where they had little success. But I'm looking for them to carry over their offensive momentum from yesterday and take advantage of Wacha being less than perfect on the road.

In the last two years this has been a perennial matchup so we can anticipate some really good ball today in San Francisco. Although some might expect this to be pitcher's duel and place MLB picks under, I look for both these teams to have some nice at-bats today to get us over this low total.

Free MLB Picks: Over 6.5