Cardinals vs Brewers Offer Amazing Run Line Value

Cardinals vs Brewers MLB Odds

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, July 8, 2016 5:18 PM GMT

Friday, Jul. 8, 2016 5:18 PM GMT

Based on series history, current momentum of starting pitchers, strong edges in batting and bullpen and 88% run line situation, the MLB Pick is on St. Louis on the run line at underdog price.

The St. Louis Cardinals visit the Milwaukee Brewers to close out the first half of the season in this 3-game weekend set. The series has not been very competitive this year to date. The Cards stand 7-2 against Milwaukee this year, outscoring the Brewers 57-22, following last weekend’s 3-game sweep in Busch Stadium by a combined score of 19-9.

Milwaukee rebounded a bit by taking 2 of 3 from Washington, before a day off on Thursday. The Cards needed that day to salvage a single game from Pittsburgh and reverse their momentum on an underachieving home field. 

Milwaukee continues as a losing team at 37-47, right where the experts predicted them to be as yet another sub .500 team. Coming off a 68-94 campaign, there is little hope for the Brewers to continue to alternate winning and losing campaigns, as they have in the previous 4 seasons. In the first 2 months of the season, it appeared that Nelson would be emerging as one of the Brewers’ top starters.

After 11 starts, Nelson was 5-2 with a 2.88 ERA. But, the bottom has fallen out of his season since the calendar turned to June. Milwaukee has lost his last 6 starts. Chances for him to turn this around against St. Louis are not good. In 7 appearances against St. Louis, Nelson is 0-6 with a whopping 8.49 ERA. Quieting the St. Louis’ bats appears unlikely this evening!

The St. Louis’ victory Thursday afternoon salvaged a game in their 4-game series vs. the Pirates. It also allowed them to reclaim a narrow ½ game lead against the red-hot Pirates, as they each continue their quest to track down a Cubs’ team, who has seen the bottom fall out of their season with a 24-27 slide. There is good reason why St. Louis has dominated Milwaukee this year.

They hold a .781-.721 OPS batting advantage, which is .807-.753 when adjusted for home vs. road. That is just one of the reasons why St. Louis has already recorded 25 road wins this season. The Cards also have an edge in the closing innings with an OPS advantage of .669 to .776 against Milwaukee.

Tonight’s St. Louis starter, Wacha, has turned around his fortunes in his recent starts. Of late, he is 3-0 working 17 2/3 IP, while allowing 7 earned runs. Wacha has pitched better road than home, with a .700 OPS and his history against Milwaukee is strong with a 4-0 record, including 2-0 this season, in which he has allowed a total of 2 runs.

For our MLB Pick, we are eager to lay the runs and take the price offered on the MLB Odds with the knowledge that 48 of 56 MLB games this week (83%) have been decided by 2 or more runs. In this particular matchup, 37 of 44 St. Louis’ wins, including 22 of 25 (88%) of their road wins, have been by 2 or more runs. 

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Free MLB Pick:  Cards -1½ +125
Best Line Offered:  at Bookmaker

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