Cardinals To Cover in Holiday Matinee Versus Marlins

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, July 4, 2017 12:35 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 4, 2017 12:35 PM UTC

Lance Lynn looks to remain undefeated against Miami as the Cardinals host the Marlins in the second of a four-game series on Tuesday afternoon (2:15 p.m. ET). Jose Urena commands the hill for the Fish.

Miami Marlins (36-45)

The Marlins have dropped five of their last six games after starting pitcher Jeff Locke tied a franchise high by gifting 11 earned runs in 2.2 innings of work in a 14-6 drubbing by the Cardinals on Tuesday. In the last calendar year, Miami struggles to rebound following a road series loss in the opener. It is 4-10 SU next time out, losing by 2.3 runs per game.

Jose Urena, who has been the Marlins second best starter behind Dan Straily, looks to buck the trend on Tuesday. The flamethrower is 6-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 17 appearances (11 starts). Urena is 0-1 with 10.61 ERA in two career starts versus the Cardinals. The current roster is hitting .389 (7-of-18) against and own a .944 OPS.

The Marlins have taken the first pitch as underdogs in each of Urena's 13 career road starts. They are 7-6 SU, returning 27 percent profit at +129 average odds. The right-hander has saved his best stuff for better hitting teams in this situation. Versus opponents averaging 4.5 runs per game or better on the year, the staff cedes 2.67 runs per game. Urena has worked a quality start in five of six outings. St. Louis enters averaging 4.57 runs per contest.


St. Louis Cardinals (40-42)

The Cardinals have won five straight as home chalk following their series-opening win on Tuesday. The lineup is peppering opposing staffs, crossing the plate for 8.0 runs or more in all but one. Oddsmakers opened St. Louis -144 favorites, the line bet down to -135 at many books just hours from first pitch.

Lance Lynn takes the pill for today's holiday start. The sinkerballer is searching for consistency after missing all of 2016 because of Tommy John surgery. Lynn is 6-5 with a 3.90 ERA in 16 starts. His last seven outings have been an adventure, going 2-3 with a 5.89 ERA. He's allowed 10 home runs in this span, including four in one game. Keeping the ball in the park is significant for Lynn. St. Louis is 3-8 when the right-hander yields a longball this season.

The Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 behind Lynn versus the Fish, supporting the staff with 6.2 runs per game. One of these victories occurred in early May in a 7-5 win in Miami. Lynn earned a no-decision, chased after ceding 4 earned runs on 5 hits in 4.0 innings. He issued four walks in the game, tying his most allowed in a start this season.


Final Analysis

The Marlins used four arms out of the bullpen for 16 outs in yesterday's series opener. This automatically puts them at a disadvantage in a four-game stand. To make matters worse, the clean-up crew was tired before reaching St. Louis. They have pitched 51.1 innings in the last two weeks, third most in the bigs behind the Twins and White Sox. Any late-game heroics will come from the Cardinals. For our MLB Pick, St. Louis wins a close one here. Eat the chalk.

Free MLB Pick: St. Louis -1.5Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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