Cardinals' Splits Against Williams Show Runs Aplenty

Saturday, April 28, 2018 1:47 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 28, 2018 1:47 PM UTC

Coming off of a split, Mark Lathrop takes a look at the huge Saturday MLB betting card and spots line value on two games in particular. Read on as he gives us his personal top MLB Picks of the Day.

2018 MLB Record: 31-24-2, +5.74

Seatle Mariners (14-10 SU) vs Cleveland Indians (13-10 SU)

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Free MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners ML +205 Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

Cleveland Indians starter, Carlos Carrasco, gets his second look at the Mariners this year with an aim to improve on his only bad start of the season so far. Carrasco gave up 5 earned runs on 7 hits against the Mariners in late March, but still won his matchup with James Paxton as the Indians scored 6 runs off of James Paxton. Nelson Cruz and Mitch Haniger hit both went deep off of Carrasco in that game, and the batter splits show that could easily happen against on Saturday. Five batters in the expected lineup for Seattle hit better than .300 off of Carrasco, and Ryon Healy wasn’t even in the lineup the first go around (He has a .400 BAA). This is a bad matchup for him, even if the season stats show he has it all together.

The trick here will be for Mike Leake of the Mariners to keep his act together after a terrible start his last go-around. His splits against this Indians lineup is better than Carrasco against the M’s however, especially when it comes to slugging percentage. He just needs to keep it close for the M’s to have a great chance at winning this game, as it must be reminded that the Indians bullpen is shorthanded with Andrew Miller on the DL. I expect Carrasco to struggle again here, which leaves excellent value in taking the Mariners to win straight up on the moneyline at +205, currently available at many books for my Saturday MLB Pick.

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Yesterday took 13 innings. How long will tonight take?

We head to the 11th still tied 5-5. #STLCards

— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) April 28, 2018

St. Louis Cardinals (12-11 O/U) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (13-9 O/U)

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Free MLB Pick: Over 8 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

Trevor Williams has been awesome this year and has a 2.15 ERA, yet he is an underdog against the St. Louis Cardinals and that should tell you something. His record against the lineup of the Cardinals has been terrible, as he has put up a 9.45 ERA and 2.17 WHIP against them in his career and has seven batters he will face on Saturday that have an OBP over .400 against him. Williams has a 4.86 xFIP against his awesome ERA, which also tells me he is due for some serious regression in that regard. His velocity is way down over last year too, which is a huge red flag.

St. Louis will start Jack Flaherty in this game after being recalled from AAA. He has one big league start this year, a good one, where he gave up 6 hits over 5 innings pitched and just one run against the Milwaukee Brewers. He hasn’t faced anyone in this Pittsburgh lineup in his career, but Pittsburgh is hitting righties well with a 4.5 runs per game average on the season. He’ll need to put together a deep start to avoid the Cardinals bullpen which has a 4.06 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road this year. I don’t think Flaherty going deep is in the cards, so I’ll take the reasonable Over of 8 runs in this game as another Saturday top MLB Pick.

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