With the Diamondbacks starting to surge in the NL West & the Cardinals holding strong in the NL Central, I'm betting over the run total odds. Expect Lance Lynn to struggle a bit on the road.
Cardinals vs. Diamondback MLB Odds
Odds makers came out with this game at 8.5 and then the line dropped to 8, which makes some sense being that it is in a National League Park and the Arizona Diamondbacks are coming back from a road trip. Despite those angles I think we are going to see both teams put up quite a few runs today in this matchup. The best odds on over the total of 8 is at Pinnacle sports at -105.
St. Louis Cardinals
Lance Lynn gets the start for the Cardinals and comes in with a 2.94 ERA, 1.31 whip, 143 strikeouts, and at 9-8 record. He has been sharp so far this season, but most of his best outings have come in St. Louis. Although he looked good in his last road start in Milwaukee his ERA jumps to 3.51 on the road and batters are hitting almost .270 against him. He is facing a really tough lineup today and the Arizona Diamondbacks and I anticipate he is going to get knocked around a little bit.
The Cardinals rank 24th in runs scored per game at 3.89, 18th in OPS at .707, and 16th in batting average hitting .253 as a team. Most of their offensive statistics go up at home, but their run total per game actually goes down in St. Louis and up on the road. Their offensive statistics are surprisingly low considering their strong record, but they should have some good at-bats today against Ray.
Robbie Ray gets the start for Arizona with a 3.38 ERA, 1.25 whip, 76 strikeouts, and a surprising 3-9 record. That losing record is not in proportion to how well he has pitched this year. Surprising as well is his home ERA jumps to 4.45 and batters are hitting over .280 against him. He has been okay but not great in his last 10 starts, and in his last five starts he is given up 15 earned runs in 28 innings. Although I don't expect the Cardinals to do a ton of damage against him, I do expect them to get at least a few on the board.
Arizona ranks third in the major leagues and lead the National League in runs scored per game at 4.59, seventh in OPS at .736, and fifth in team batting average hitting .266 as a team. I'll keep this short and sweet, they are very dangerous hitting team and all their offensive statistics go up at home. Up and down the lineup they have guys that can flat out rake and I expect them to do a lot of damage against Lynn today.
This should be a playoff like atmosphere in Arizona today when the Diamondbacks get the host the National League's best team in the Cardinals. They are not that far out of the NL West race and every game is important to them, look for the hard-hitting Diamondbacks to have a lot of quality at-bats today. On the other side don't expect the Cardinals to just lay down and get shut out. This should be a great game and I look for more runs than the odds makers have anticipated, back the over as part of your Monday MLB picks.
MLB Picks: Over