Cappers Suggest Total Pick for Blue Jays vs. Yankees

Darin Zank

Friday, July 25, 2014 1:36 PM GMT

Toronto and New York are still chasing Baltimore in AL East, but they'll beat up on each other this weekend when they play a three-game series at the Stadium, beginning Friday night (7:05 pm ET). Here's our preview of this series, with free MLB picks on each game thrown in.

Jays-Yanks Betting Odds
As of early Friday morning the best price we could find on New York and Hiroki Kuroda was the -130 offered at BetOnline, while Toronto and Mark Buehrle could be found at +121 at Heritage. And most shops were listing the total on Friday's game at eight runs.

Also, BetOnline was chalking the Yanks at -150 to win this series, with the Jays getting +130.

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Series Set-Up
New York just took three of four games at home from Texas this week, winning Thursday 4-2. So the Yankees have won two series in a row and six of their last seven games.

Toronto just took three of four games at home from Boston this week, winning Thursday 8-0. The Blue Jays have won two series in a row, and five of their last six games.

So the Yanks, at 53-48, and the Jays, at 54-49, are tied for second place in the AL East, three games back of first-place Baltimore.

New York leads this season series six games to three, with the totals leaning toward the 'overs' by a 6-3 margin.

 

Friday's Starters
Kuroda (6-6, 3.88), by our tough standards, is 9/20 on quality starts this season, and two for his last two. Last Sunday against Cincy he gave up one unearned run through 6 2/3 innings, and just before that he held Baltimore to two runs through seven innings.

For the season Kuroda has allowed 121 hits in 123 innings, walked 25 and struck out 86. New York is 9-11 in Kuroda's starts, with the totals tilting toward the 'unders' 13-7.

Kuroda has started once this season against the Jays, giving up three runs and eight hits through 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 Yankees victory one month ago.

Mark Buehrle (10-6, 2.86) is 12/20 on quality starts this year, but 0 for his last three. Last Sunday he gave up five runs in six innings against Texas, and over his last three starts he's given up 10 ER through 17 innings.

On the season Buehrle has allowed 137 hits in 132 innings, walked 35 and struck out 78. Toronto is 14-6 in Buehrle's starts, with the totals going 10-9.

Buehrle has started twice against the Yanks this season, allowing six ER and 14 hits in 12 2/3 innings; both those games played 'over' the totals.

In the bullpen comparison for this series New York ranks 16th with a 3.66 ERA, going 33/46 on save opportunities, while Toronto ranks 28th with a 4.47 ERA, going 30/43 on save opps.

 

At the Bat
Toronto ranks seventh in team OBP at .328, second in homers with 123 and fifth in scoring at 4.5 runs per game. That OBP increases to .338 against right-handed pitching.

New York ranks 19th in OBP at .313, and 20th in scoring at just under four runs per game. But that OBP jumps to .328 vs. left-handed pitching.

 

Jays-Yanks Betting Trends
New York has beaten Toronto 16 times in a row in the Bronx.

The Yankees have played five 'unders' in a row, and nine 'unders' in their last 10 games.

The totals have leaned toward the 'unders' this season by a 30-17 margin in games played at Yankee Stadium.

 

Injury Update
Toronto is still playing without, among others, Edwin Encarnacion (26 HR), Adam Lind (.320) and Brett Lawrie. Over in the other dugout New York slugger Mark Teixeira (17 HR) has missed recent action with a sore back, and is uncertain for this series.

 

Free Pick for Friday
We're not sure who's going to win this game, but we get the feeling some runs will be scored. So we'll go with the 'over' eight runs, at the -114 offered at Pinnacle, for our free MLB pick on Friday's series opener.