Cappers Pick Red Sox vs. Yankees 'Over' 8.5

Jeff Grant

Friday, April 11, 2014 12:26 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 11, 2014 12:26 PM UTC

The Boston Red Sox knocked around New York Yankees ace CC Sabathia a year ago, which will lead to plenty of runs being scored in the Bronx Friday night. With MLB odds listing the total at 8.5, do we expect this number to be topped?

Let’s take a closer look at the MLB betting odds for this American League East matchup at Yankee Stadium, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.

Follow our Red Sox vs. Yankees series coverage.

Alternating pattern
Boston has alternated wins and losses over its last five games, as it attempts to bounce back from a 4-1 road defeat to New York Thursday, while going UNDER the betting total for the fourth time in that span.

The Red Sox are trying to become the first team to repeat as World Series champion since 2000, as they’ve won all four times when scoring first and dropped all six affairs when their opponent scores first in the early going. 

MLB handicappers will find that the club is 33-21 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last two-plus seasons.


Gaining revenge
New York is focused on trying to turn the tide against Boston, as it compiled a 6-13 record in last year’s season series—the highest number of losses in the rivalry since 1973. 

Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter is one of the players to watch in this high-profile affair, considering he’s produced a .333 average with one round tripper and eight RBIs against tonight’s opposing starter.

It’s important to take into account that the franchise is 4-7 as a home underdog of +100 to +125 in its last 11 opportunities, with the OVER going 6-5 in that situation.


Red Sox starting pitcher Jon Lester (0-2, 2.51 ERA) has received just one run of support in losing his first two outings, as he’s allowed 13 combined hits and four earned runs over 14.1 combined innings.

The left-hander went 8-7 with a 4.21 ERA in 20 road games a season ago, with opposing hitters batting .263 against him.

In 26 career games versus the Yankees, Lester has compiled a 11-5 record and 3.96 ERA, including a 7-3 mark and 4.19 ERA in 14 efforts at this ballpark.  


Yankees starting pitcher CC Sabathia (1-1, 7.50 ERA) earned his first victory of the season last time out, as he allowed four runs and seven hits over six innings of work in a 7-3 road win over the Toronto Blue Jays.

The left-hander has gone 43-16 (.729) with a 3.21 ERA in front of the home fans since landing in the Bronx—the highest winning percentage among active pitchers who have made at least 10 starts at the venue.

In 27 lifetime games versus the Red Sox, Sabathia has put together a losing 10-11 record and 4.72 ERA.


I’m going to recommend that readers play the total, as the OVER is 4-1 in Sabathia’s last five home starts in this rivalry.

MLB Pick:  Over 8.5
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