Cappers Highlight Three Top-Value MLB Teams

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, June 24, 2014 4:33 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 24, 2014 4:33 PM UTC

When is the right time to beat the betting odds on a Major League team? That is never a simple answer, however, in reviewing current and other factors, we have a trio that should be tantalizing. Grab a cold one, have a seat and we will examine what three teams should result in solid profits in the days ahead for making MLB picks at sportsbooks.

Baltimore Orioles (40-35, +7.7 units)   
Statistically, it is hard to get excited about Baltimore as they rank either at or just above or below the norms in the American League in hitting, pitching and fielding. About the only aspect they are really proficient at is hitting home runs, ranking second in the American League. Why then should the Orioles be thought of as a "Play On Team" at this time in their schedule?

Baltimore has begun an 11-game homestand and is playing the White Sox, Tampa Bay and Texas. As of Tuesday morning, these three opponents all have losing records, and have a combined win percentage of .439. With this the case, we delve into the numbers, like smart baseball handicappers do, and find the O’s are 18-11 as favorites (+4.1 units), a very solid record.  

Another potential positive development which we believe will unfold is that the Orioles will start playing better at home. The last two years Baltimore has posted home records of 47-34 and 46-35 respectively under Buck Showalter. This season they are only 17-17 (-2.1) at Camden Yards, and with these opposing teams, the Birds have a tremendous opportunity to succeed, and take advantage of it.

Detroit Tigers (40-32, -3.8)
For all the negative talk about the Tigers, which was deserved, they are starting to rebound with four consecutive wins and have retaken first place in the AL Central. While Detroit was playing miserably most of June with a lack of scoring, except for an occasional outburst, and rotten starting pitchers, signs of turnaround are emerging. The offense has started to click again, and might be headed back to 4.7 to 4.8 runs a game (4.56 presently) and the starters have thrown much better after sit-downs with the manager and pitching coach.  

With all the bad press Justin Verlander has received, Detroit has won 9 of his 16 starts and he’s -2.05 units, which suggests three more good starts and he’s back to positive numbers versus the MLB odds, which presumably lowers his 4.71 ERA. The Tigers are 21-9 when Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are the starters, placing them at over 10 units of profit. If you look at the basic stats, Anibal Sanchez and Drew Smyly have similar numbers to the other two pitchers in the rotation, yet are 9-14 and down 10.55 units. If Sanchez has more run support, and Smyly avoids the one critical mistake which has nailed him, the Detroit starting pitching returns to the level everyone expected.

With a Lone Star State road trip this week against losing squads, and the Tigers 21-13 (+6.1) away, every reason to think profits are available with this MoTown bunch.

San Francisco Giants (45-31, +11.8)
The Giants have been dismal in dropping 10 of 13, yet are still among the best teams in baseball. We have seen the worst side of this club, with the offense sketchy, bullpen failures and Matt Cain in particular a shadow of his former self. This aside, the top of the rotation still has Madison Bumgarner and Tim Hudson and San Francisco is 20-8 (+13.65) when they take the mound.

Ryan Vogelsong has been coming around, and Tim Lincecum will pitch well for two or three outings, and get hammered the next which bloats his ERA.

The Giants will have an opportunity to start playing their game back at AT&T against San Diego, Cincinnati and St. Louis for a 10-game stay. San Fran is 23-16 on the back bay, and has to regain confidence and come out swinging more aggressively.Not having Angel Pagan does affect the offense, yet this is an experienced team with two World Series trophies since 2010 and a 7-3 homestand would not be a surprise. We would have you consider the Giants with your sports picks the next week or two. 

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