Capper On Winning Streak Shares 'Under' MLB Pick Worth Adding To Your Ticket

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, April 28, 2016 1:04 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 28, 2016 1:04 PM UTC

After going a perfect 2-0 yesterday, our MLB odds-capper expert picks the White Sox & Orioles game to grab a profitable 'under' for tonight.

White Sox (Danks) vs. Orioles (Wilson) 7:05 PM ET
The red-hot White Sox open a four game series on Thursday at Camden Yards in Baltimore. Current MLB odds seen at YouWager indicates that Baltimore is a -130 money line favorite, and the posted total is 8.5. Since the 2014 MLB campaign convened, Baltimore is 8-4 during this head to head series, and those 12 games went 6-5-1 over the total. These teams split their six games against one another a season ago.


Sizzling Sox
The Chicago White Sox have been the biggest early season surprise in baseball, and they enter today with a stellar 16-6 (.727) record. As a matter of fact, they’ve gone 8-1 during their last nine, and that includes a current six game win streak. They’ve accomplished this early season success despite averaging only 3.7 runs per game.

In light of their below average offensive production, obviously White Sox pitching has been very good. They’re allowing a meager 2.4 runs per game, and White Sox pitchers have held opposing hitters to a cumulative .207 batting average. After touching upon these statistical facts, it should come as no surprise that Chicago is 15-5-1 under the total this season, and it also includes 13-3 under during their previous sixteen games.


Recent Superb Pitching and Offensive Struggles
Baltimore has allowed a paltry 3.0 runs per outing in their last seven, and Orioles pitchers held opposing batters to meager .212 batting averaging during that time period. They’ve also gone 7-0-1 under the total this season at hitter friendly Camden Yards, and allowed only 2.4 runs per game. Unfortunately, the Orioles bats have been silent of late. During their previous four games, Baltimore is averaging 1.3 runs and 5.3 hits per contest, and all of those contests stayed under the total. They’ve also gone 8-1 under the total during their last nine games.


Excellent Bullpens
The Orioles and White Sox bullpens have been outstanding so far in 2016. White Sox relievers have a combined 1.32 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. They’ve also allowed just 1 home run in 61 1/3 innings of work. Baltimore’s relief pitchers have similarly impressive numbers, posting a staff ERA of 1.80, and that includes 1.39 at home. Baltimore’s bullpen has allowed only 2 home runs in 70.0 innings pitched.


Starting Pitchers
White Sox veteran southpaw John Danks is off to an inauspicious start to 2016. He’s gone 0-3 in his team starts while compiling a lofty 6.23 ERA. However, Danks made one start versus Baltimore last season, and it was a beauty. He allowed no earned runs on 5 hits while walking 2 in 7.0 innings during that outing. The White Sox coaching staff will hope for 5.0 to 6.0 solid innings out of Danks today, and then turn it over to their red-hot bullpen.

Tyler Wilson will be making just his second start of the season for Baltimore on Thursday. He allowed 3 earned runs on 6 hits while walking none in 5.0 innings during his 2016 debut. Wilson has one career start versus the White Sox, and that took place last season. During that outing, he allowed just 2.0 earned runs on five hits while walking 1 in 6.0 innings.


Final Take and Pick
The total for this matchup opened at 9.0, and despite a majority of early bets going on over the total, it’s since be moved to 8.5. I never ignore reverse line movement such as this, and that’s especially the case when current or overall statistical data supports that adjustment. Relative to the current total, I like this game to be a lower scoring affair, and one of my Thursday MLB picks will be indicative of that prediction.

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Free MLB Pick: 'Under' 8.5
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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