Capper's MLB Picks for Giants vs. Diamondbacks Heavily Influenced by Stats & Betting Odds

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, April 6, 2015 2:13 PM GMT

The defending Champion, San Francisco Giants will face the Arizona Diamondbacks in a closing matchup for today's MLB action. Join our expert handicapper while he gives you his MLB picks at no cost!

 

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 10:10 ET ESPN2
At 10:10 ET, as televised by ESPN2, the defending Champion, San Francisco Giants will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who had the worst record in MLB at 64-98 and are listed as short underdogs on the MLB odds tonight. That mark for Arizona included just 33-48 at this Chase Field site.  There has been a lot of house cleaning for the D’backs, including a new Manager in Chip Hale. Even with plenty of roster turnaround, the D’backs are projected for only 72 wins, a number that is higher than only the Phillies. San Francisco will face roster change as well.  But, this is a team who is a proven winner under Bruce Bochy, a Manager with 20 years’ experience in the “bigs.”

 

The Arizona problems may begin the opening week of the season. For, 2 of their projected starters, Bronson Arroyo and Patrick Corbin, remain on the DL with Tommy John surgery till the second half of the season. That thrusts Collmenter into the opening day role.  Collmenter has 4 years of big league experience in which he has been shuffled between roles as a reliever and starter.  Last year, he started 28 of the 33 games in which he appeared with an 11-9 record.  Working 179 innings, Collmenter posted a 115/39 KBB and 1.13 WHIP.  But, the real reason he gets this start is a strong Spring Training in which he worked 13 scoreless innings. To his credit, his 59 2/3 IP of work vs. San Fran reveal similar stats to his lifetime numbers.  No doubt, he will be pumped to pitch against the defending Champs.  But, the rebuilding nature of the D’backs, along with his mound opponent, implies a challenge that he and his teammates will not be able to overcome.  

The MLB Opening Day is full of possibilities to maximize your profit. Here are three picks at no cost!

Last October, San Francisco outlasted upstart, KC Royals, for their 3rd World Series Title in 5 years. The fact they have alternated those victories sets them up for a projected letdown by many pundits.  For example, they have gone from 94 to 76 to 88 wins, the previous 3 years. With roster turnover that includes the loss of Sandoval, Morris and Hunter Pence (on the DL to begin the season), there figures to be a lack of offense.  But, the Giants retain a top-notch bullpen, the managerial ability of Bochy and of course, the pitching of Bumgarner.  The young lefthander is quickly emerging into elite status among National League hurlers. Working 217 IP last year, Bumgarner had a 219/43 KBB, a 1.09 WHIP and a .240 BAA. That, of course, culminated with his playoff performance of last year, where he went 4-1, including 2-0 in the World Series with a 0.43 ERA. This selection points out what I believe about Spring Training, considering that in 6 starts, Bumgarner went 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA.  Now that the bell has rung, look for a primetime performance once again by Bumgarner.  

 

Furthermore, I am eager to turn this into an underdog price, considering the following numbers. In the previous 2 years, 63 of 84 Arizona home losses have been by 2 or more runs, including 34 of 48 last season. San Francisco was the best run-line team in MLB last season. 70 of their 88 victories (an amazing 80%, MLB average is 70%) came by 2 or more runs, including 34 of 43 road victories. That brings their 2 year record in this role to 58 of 76 road victories by 2 or more runs. With one of the best pitchers in MLB on the mound, we will turn this road favorite into an underdog by laying the runs with our MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Take San Francisco Giants