Capper Rolling on Total Picks & ‘Under’ Is Call in Orioles-Red Sox

Matthew Jordan

Sunday, April 30, 2017 11:45 PM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 30, 2017 11:45 PM UTC

The Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox play for the sixth time already this season on Monday as the Orioles begin a four-game set at Fenway Park (7 p.m. ET, ESPN). Can this capper keep his winning streak going?

MLB Season Record: 9-4

Baltimore Orioles At Boston Red Sox (-119, 8.5)

I’m rolling right now on my MLB picks with four straight wins – all on the total. So I’ll just tell you ahead of time that I’ll be sticking with totals instead of sides until that streak ends. Hopefully, I didn’t just jinx myself. I previewed Boston’s game Friday against the Cubs and recommended going ‘over’ 8 runs on that one (actually closed at 8.5). Boston won it 5-4.

The Red Sox have a minor advantage here in that they didn’t have to travel Sunday while Baltimore had to from New York after losing two of three over the weekend to the Yankees. Also, the Orioles’ bullpen might be a bit thin because they had to use five relievers in Sunday’s 7-4 11-inning win to avoid the sweep. Something interesting happened in that one. The Yankees’ Bryan Mitchell pitched the ninth inning and then moved to first base for the 10th. He also dropped a foul popup on his first play there. But playing there allowed him to return to the mound, which he did in the 11th. Alas, he took the loss.

Baltimore remains without possibly the best closer in the business, All-Star Zach Britton, due to a forearm injury. Britton threw a shutout inning of rehab in Double-A on Sunday and should be activated Tuesday. Will the Orioles have slugging first baseman Chris Davis for this one? He was pulled from Sunday's starting lineup two days after he was hit on the right elbow by a pitch from New York's CC Sabathia. Bothered by elbow soreness, Davis is 0-for 7-since he was hit. He’s batting .238 with three homers and five RBIs on the season.

The Orioles split two games at Fenway Park from April 11-12 and took two of three against the Red Sox at Camden Yards from April 21-23. Davis is hitting .389 with a homer against Boston this year. Jonathan Schoop has two homers in 15 at-bats. Manny Machado is 5-for-20 with a homer and three RBIs. Rookie Trey Mancini is 4-for-8 with three homers and six RBIs. Mark Trumbo is just 2-for-20 with five strikeouts.

Christian Vazquez is tearing up Baltimore pitching this season by going 6-for-11 with two doubles, but he apparently won’t be in the lineup Monday if Manager John Farrell is to be believed. Farrell said Sunday that Sandy Leon will now catch only for Rick Porcello and Chris Sale. Leon his hitting below the Mendoza Line so I’m not sure why he’s playing at all, but I’m not the manager. Andrew Benintendi is also hitting well against the Orioles this season, going 8-for-16 with three RBIs. Mookie Betts is not, going 4-for-21.

 Probable Pitchers

It’s young right-hander Dylan Bundy for Baltimore. The Orioles considered giving the 24-year-old former top prospect an extra day of rest, but as of now he’s scheduled for Monday.

“I feel pretty confident that Dylan will start Monday, but that could change,” Manager Buck Showalter said Sunday. “Was talking to him (Saturday) and he felt really good on his work day. He didn’t have any problems. He had a little trouble getting loose his last outing until the third inning, but he felt good after that. Said he felt a lot better with this work day than he did the last one.”

Bundy is 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in five starts. He comes off a no-decision vs. Tampa Bay, allowing two runs and four hits over 6.1 innings. He is 1-1 vs. the Red Sox in 2017. He beat Boston on April 21 at Camden Yards, shutting the Sox out on six hits. On April 11 at Fenway, Bundy allowed a season-high three runs and seven hits in 6.1 innings in an 8-1 loss. Betts hits Bundy well, going 5-for-15 with two homers. Dustin Pedroia is 6-for-15 with three RBIs against him.

It’s reigning AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello (1-3, 4.75) for Boston. Those numbers don’t look great but the ERA is largely inflated by an April 14 outing where Porcello was gashed for eight runs (four homers) in 4.1 innings against the Rays. He comes off allowing two earned and five hits over 6.2 innings in a defeat to the Yankees. Porcello hasn’t faced Baltimore this season. Last year, he was 1-1 with a 3.13 ERA in three starts against them. Davis is 8-for-36 with three homers off Porcello. Trumbo is 8-for-26 with three homers. Adam Jones is just 11-for-45 with 11 strikeouts.

The under is 4-1 in Porcello’s past five at home and 8-1-2 in the past 11 meetings overall so that’s the lean on MLB odds.

MLB Free Pick: ‘Under’ 8.5Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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