Capper Predicts Pirates Victory Over Giants in Series Finale

Darin Zank

Wednesday, July 30, 2014 12:51 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 30, 2014 12:51 PM UTC

Pittsburgh has taken the first two games of this series, including a 3-1 victory Tuesday night, and both games, to our delight, have played 'under' on the MLB betting totals. How might Wednesday's series finale (3:45 pm ET) play out?

Wednesday's Betting Odds
As of early Wednesday morning most books were listing San Francisco and Tim Lincecum at around -120 over Pittsburgh and Charlie Morton, with a total of 7.5 runs.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":287112, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Tuesday Re-Hash
Pittsburgh got a homer from Josh Harrison to lead off the game and a two-run bop from Travis Snider in the second, and that was all they needed, as Francisco Liriano and two relievers held the Giants to six hits for a 3-1 Pirates victory. The Bucs won as +110 underdogs, and just as we had hoped the game stayed 'under' its total of 6.5 runs.

Pittsburgh is now 22-11 over its last 33 games.

San Francisco has now scored a total of nine runs over its last seven games.


Wednesday's Whirlers
Lincecum (9-7, 3.96), by our tough standards, is 9/21 on quality starts this year, and recently had a run of five in a row. But last time out he got nicked for six runs in 4 1/3 innings by the Dodgers. Prior to that Lincecum had given up just four runs through his previous 38 innings.

For the season the 2-time Cy Young winner has allowed 111 hits in 125 innings, walked 47 and whiffed 114. San Francisco is 13-8 in Lincecum's starts.

Since the beginning of last season Lincecum has started three times against the Pirates, allowing nine ER and 18 hits through 14 innings; Frisco lost two of those three games.

Morton (5-10, 3.40) is 10/21 on quality starts this year. He had a QS going last time out, holding the Rockies to one run through six innings, then couldn't get an out in the seventh, instead getting charged with three more runs. In his start just before that he held that same Colorado lineup to one run through seven innings.

On the season Morton has allowed 112 hits in 132 innings, walked 44 and struck out 106. Pittsburgh is only 10-11 in Morton's starts, but the totals have leaned toward the 'unders' by an 11-8 margin.

Since the beginning of last season Morton has started three times against the Giants, allowing three ER and 17 hits though 20 2/3 innings; the Pirates won two of those three games.


Free Pick for Wednesday
We picked a double winner on Game 1 of this series Monday with Pittsburgh and the 'under,' and we like that same line of thinking for today. So we'll go with the Pirates, getting +108 at 5Dimes, and the 'under' 7.5, at the -120 offered at Pinnacle, for today's free MLB picks.

comment here