Capper Predicts No National League Team Could Be MLB Pick To Win World Series

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, March 31, 2016 2:32 PM GMT

Our handicapper analyzes the playoff odds of each team to see if there are any dark horse plays for the World Series that are worth your wager in the MLB odds.

One of the article series that I’ve been doing recently has been to comparing sabermetrics based win projections against season win total props available at Bovada. In this article I’d like to take a look at how those same projections relate to World Series odds with playoff probabilities to see if we can find some longshots that actually are not so.

Making the playoffs is of course the most important step of making it to the World Series, and after you get to the playoffs I’d like to think that winning it all is just about a crapshoot. Each team at that point has a strong rotation, bullpen, and run production. The MLB odds to make the playoffs are based on the 162 game season as well, versus a short playoff series, which will take some of the random variability out of equation.

Click & Compare All Props On Offer & World Series Odds

There is just a larger sample size for the cream to rise to the crop. For this reason, once you are in the playoffs, any team should have just as good a chance as another at winning it all, regardless of season win-loss records. Let’s dig in then and see if we can find an MLB pick and some value in the current World Series odds listed at Bovada.

 Chicago Cubs +500

San Francisco Giants +800

Toronto Blue Jays +1000

New York Mets +1200

Los Angeles Dodgers +1200

Boston Red Sox +1400

Kansas City Royals +1400

Houston Astros +1600

Washington Nationals +1800

St. Louis Cardinals +1800

Cleveland Indians +1800

Detroit Tigers +2000

Pittsburgh Pirates +2000

Texas Rangers +2500

New York Yankees +2500

Arizona Diamondbacks +2500

Chicago White Sox +3300

Seattle Mariners +4000

Los Angeles Angels +4000

Baltimore Orioles +4000

Tampa Bay Rays +4000

Minnesota Twins +5000

Miami Marlins +5000

Oakland Athletics +6600

San Diego Padres +12500

Milwaukee Brewers +12500

Cincinnati Reds +12500

Philadelphia Phillies +15000

Atlanta Braves +15000

Colorado Rockies +15000

(Odds current 03/30/16 at Bovada)

 

Cleveland Indians (+1800)
Starting from the top, the Indians are currently listed as having a 69.6% chance of making the playoffs, yet their World Series odds are much worse than the San Francisco Giants, who have a 58.8% chance of making the playoffs. Cleveland is exactly the type of team that can make noise in a short series, as they have potential aces in the first 3 spots of their rotation in Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar.

 

Seattle Mariners (+4000)
Ok, yours truly would probably die of a heart attack if the Mariners played in the World Series, but at least this way my wife would get a life insurance payout if they win. The Mariners are currently listed at a 29.5% probability to make the playoffs, and once in, they do have the 1-2 pitching punch of Felix Hernandez and Taijuan Walker to be competitive in a playoff series. If they get there, you can also assume that Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano haven’t fallen off of a cliff, so their lineup has some thunder to go along with the pitching and defense.

 

Minnesota Twins (+5000)
At 15.1% playoff odds, the Twins actually have a higher listed playoff chance than the Kansas City Royals at 12.8%. I don’t know if this is actually a suggestion to take the Twins, or a suggestion not to take the Royals at +1400 to win the World Series. The Royals are my strongest pick to go under their posted win total at Bovada this year.

 

Tampa Bay (+4000)
In the competitive AL East, the Rays have a 25.9% projected odds to make the playoffs. This is most likely in a Wild Card slot, but no matter, as the Ray’s ace Chris Archer has the stuff to get them past a one game playoff to the Divisional Round. Once there, there are five pitchers in the Rays rotation that are projected to have ERA’s of less than 4 in 2016, suggesting they can be competitive in short playoff’s series.

 

National League Thoughts
I just noticed that in my analysis that I have no suggested National League longshots for the pennant this year. Basically the Mets, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Giants are all strongly projected to take the available playoff spots this year. In that group, the Nationals and Cardinals have the best value at +1800, but I would consider neither a true longshot if they won the World Series.