Capper Predicts High-Scoring Mets-Phillies Game

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, April 11, 2017 6:10 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 11, 2017 6:10 PM UTC

SBR analyst Ross Benjamin has an interesting perspective on Tuesday’s NL East showdown between the Mets and Phillies. Don’t make a move on this game without first reading Ross' free MLB pick.

New York Mets At Philadelphia Phillies

The Mets and Phillies will partake in their second game of a 3-game set on Tuesday. The first pitch at Citizen’s Bank Park in Philadelphia is slated for 7:05 PM ET. The Mets won the opening game 4-3 on Monday, and they’ve now gone 7-3 at Philadelphia since 2016. Furthermore, the last 7 games played in Philadelphia between these NL East rivals have all gone 'under' the total.

Current MLB odds show the Mets ranging from a -137 to -150 moneyline favorite. The total opened at 8.0 but has since climbed to 8.5 or 9.0.

 Starting Pitchers

Matt Harvey will make his second start of the season Tuesday. The right-handed hurler was solid in his 2017 debut against Atlanta. During that start at Citi Field in New York, Harvey allowed 2 earned runs on 3 hits through 6 2/3 innings. It must be noted that he surrendered 2 solo home runs. Harvey has made 4 starts vs. Philadelphia since 2015 and compiled a lofty 4.81 ERA during those appearances.

The Phillies' new offseason acquisition Clay Buchholz will be making his 2nd start of the season as well. Buchholz was very shaky in Phillies debut at Cincinnati last Thursday, allowing 4 earned runs on 7 hits while walking 2 in just 5.0 innings of work. Getting off to slow beginnings to seasons has become an alarming trend for Buchholz. During the past 3 seasons, he made 15 starts in April with 5 coming each year. Buchholz collected an April ERA of 6.66 in 2014, 5.76 during 2015 and 6.51 last season -- all with Boston.


Shaky Bullpens

Philadelphia relievers have been far from impressive thus far, proven by their combined 5.24 ERA while surrendering 6 home runs in 22 1/3 innings. The Mets' bullpen staff has allowed 27 hits and walked 17 men in just 25 1/3 innings.


MLB Totals Betting Angle

The Mets enter with an anemic team batting average of .198 and their bullpen has a lofty 1.73 WHIP. This fits into a very profitable betting angle which weighed heavily in making one of my MLB picks on Tuesday.

Any National League team (Mets) playing in a game with a total of 8.0 or 8.5, possessing a team batting average of .245 or less and its bullpen has a cumulative WHIP of 1.55 or worse resulted in those games going 39-13 (75%) 'over' the total since 2013. Those 52 games averaged a combined 10.2 runs being scored per outing.

MLB Free Pick: 'Over' 8.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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