Capper Leans on Royals' Bullpens for Tonight's World Series MLB Pick

Darin Zank

Saturday, October 31, 2015 2:02 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 31, 2015 2:02 PM UTC

New York hit the board with a victory Friday night, & looks to pull even in Game 4 Saturday night. But this handicapper still believes the betting value probably resides with the underdog.

World Series Game 4 Odds
As of this writing the best MLB odds we could find on New York with rookie lefty Steve Matz was the -134 offered at Heritage, while Kansas City with Game 1 winner Chris Young was getting +129 at BookMaker. Also, 5Dimes adjusted its odds to win this Series, with KC now chalked at -200, the Mets getting +170.


Game 4: The Situation
New York hit the board in this World Series with a 9-3 romp in Game 3 Friday night, pulling to within a game at 2-1. KC took an early lead with a run in the top of the first inning, but David Wright gave the Mets the lead with a two-run homer in the bottom of the first. The Royals then scored twice more in the second, but New York scored twice in the third, once in the fourth and four times in the sixth to pull away. This handicapper whiffed on our free MLB pick on Game 3 with Kansas City, but we're still 2-1 on this Series.


Game 4 Starting Pitchers
Matz (4-0, 2.27) joined the New York rotation for good back in early September, and wound up throwing 36 innings, allowing 34 hits, 10 walks and nine runs, with 34 whiffs. The Mets won five of his six starts during the regular season. He then started Game 4 of the NLDS against Los Angeles, going five innings, allowing three runs and six hits in a 3-1 New York defeat; he then started Game 4 of the NLCS against Chicago, going 4 2/3 innings, allowing one run and four hits, with four strikeouts, in that 8-3 pennant-clinching victory. On the whole New York is 6-2 in games Matz has started this year. This will be Matz's first-ever start against Kansas City.

Young (11-6, 3.06) tossed 123 innings during the regular season, posting solid 1.09 WHIP, striking out 83 while walking 43. He then pitched four innings of relief in Game 1 of the ALDS against Houston, allowing just one run through four innings, walking two while striking out seven; he then started Game 4 of the ALCS against Toronto, allowing two runs through 4 2/3 innings of that 14-2 Royals victory; he then came into a 4-4 game in the opener of this World Series Tuesday night in the top of the 12th inning and delivered three hitless/scoreless frames, whiffing four, picking up the victory when KC pushed across a run in the bottom of the fourteenth. Young threw 53 pitches Tuesday night, 34 for strikes; he's probably on a short leash for today Kansas City is 13-6 in games Young has started this season. This will be Young's first start against the Mets since 2008, when he was with San Diego.


Game 4 Batting Splits
Kansas City ranked 11th in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .323 team on-base percentage, and 15th with a .406 team slugging percentage. But remember, the Royals are down a bat in these Series games played at Citi Field. In 11 games now this season in National League ballparks the Royals are 5-6, averaging just 3.6 runs per game.

On the other hand, New York ranked 21st this season against right-handed pitching with a.... .312 team OBP and 20th with a... .397 team slugging percentage.

World Series Game 4 Free Pick
We'll call the pitching match-up a push, and the sticks, too, but we still give the KC bullpen the edge. And this game could very well come down to the bullpens. Plus, the Royals are getting an underdog price. So for our free MLB pick on Game 4 we once again like Kansas City.


MLB Pick: Royals +129 at Bookmaker

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